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October 3, 1999


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DD exit poll gives NDA 287 seats

The Doordarshan-DRS exit poll has predicted a majority for the Bharatiya Janata Part-led National Democratic Alliance with a tally of 287 seats and a revival of electoral fortunes for the Congress in Uttar Pradesh after the final phase of voting today.

The exit poll has given a slender lead of 15 seats to the NDA over the magic figure of 271 in the 543-member Lok Sabha, which means the combination would be adding 34 seats.

However, the Congress and its allies are slated to get 174 seats, getting plus 13 seats.

The losses are mainly for the category of others who are predicted to get 77 seats, losing as much as 47 seats in the dissolved house.

The exit poll is valid for 538 Lok Sabha seats, leaving out the seats where the elections are still to be held.

Individually, the BJP is expected to win 185 seats while the Congress is expected to pick up 146 seats. The BJP would get 26 per cent of votes as against 29 per cent of the Congress, the exit poll predicts. The sample size is 34,000 voters from 155 constituencies.

The survey predicted that the BJP and allies were getting 41 per cent of the national votes followed by the Congress 34 per cent and others cornering 25 per cent. The Congress is expected to have a five per cent positive swing of votes while the BJP is predicted to get three per cent and the others are expected to lose eight per cent.

Among the issues good governance topped table with 27 per cent, local issues (21 per cent), stable government (19 per cent), agriculture (13 per cent), and the much touted Kargil was the last of the table with (seven per cent).

In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is expected to get 34 per cent votes followed by the Congress (21 per cent), Samajwadi Party (20 per cent) and Bahujan Samaj Party (18 per cent).

From the point of voter swing the Congress is the biggest gainer with 15 per cent positive swing while the BJP has lost three per cent of its voter support base. The Samajwadi party is projected as the biggest loser with minus nine per cent followed by the BSP's minus three per cent.

The seat predictions for Uttar Pradesh are the BJP will get 46 seats, a loss of 13 seats, while the Congress, which had no seats in the dissolved house, will pick up 14 seats. The SP will emerge a marginal loser with 16 seats from its present strength of 20. The BSP is slated to bag three additional seats from its present strength.

In West Bengal, the Left parties are to get 23 seats followed by 16 seats for the alliance led by the Trinamul Congress and the Congress is expected to pick up three seats.

Taking a differing view, the Lokmat-CMCR-IMS exit poll predicts that the left parties will hold the key to the formation of the next government since neither the National Democratic Alliance nor the Congress and its allies will secure a simple majority in the current elections.

After the completion of five phases of polling in the country today, the NDA is likely to be restricted to 242 seats, 27 short of a simple majority, while the Congress and its allies are expected to secure 227 seats in the 13th Lok Sabha, the exit poll predicted. Though the exit polls predicted a drop of six seats for the left parties during the current elections as against 48 seats secured in the 1998 elections, it would have a decisive role in the government formation.

The BJP and its allies will be down by 38 seats compared to their performance in 1998 elections. The Congress and its allies are, however, expected to gain by 60 seats-from 167 in 1998 to 227 in this elections. The poll found a major swing in favour of the Congress over the previous year's election. The NDA also received a positive swing.

''If the swing for the Congress has gone up by ten per cent, the swing for the NDA is of two per cent on all India basis.''

Another feature of the exit poll finding is that the BJP itself will lose 25 seats and come down to 158 as against 183 seats in the 12th Lok Sabha. The loss will be largely due to setback the party might suffer in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Orissa and Bihar.

The BJP's allies will lose 13 seats and come down from 97 to 84 seats, the exit polls predicted.

The BJP is expected to suffer a huge loss in up -- 22 seats to be precise -- and 11 seats in Madhya Pradesh. Had the BJP not gained in Rajasthan (5), Maharashtra (8), Haryana (2) and elsewhere, things would have been difficult for the NDA. The BJP may be pushed to the number two position largely due to losses in UP and MP. It was in UP where the Congress and Rashtriya Lok Dal will improve their tally further by getting 30 out of 85 seats.

Even in the last phase in UP, the BJP will get only eight of 31 seats with the Congress and allies are getting nine and the remaining 14 going to the Sp, BSP and others.

The exit-poll predicts that the NDA will be ahead of its rivals in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Karnataka, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, UP, Himachal, Orissa and elsewhere.

But the Congress will open its account in a big way in Punjab, UP and Tamil Nadu and make major gains in Kerala, Delhi, Mp and other states.

The exit poll was conducted in 25 constituencies out of 118 Lok Sabha seats which went to poll today spread over 10 states and one Union territory. Seats covered in the exit poll were spread over in six states -- UP, MP, Bihar, Assam, West Bengal and Orissa. The survey teams conducted poll among 6700 voters. The Lokmat-CMCR-IMS poll covered 107 Lok Sabha constituencies in all in the 5 phases of polling with a total sample base of 26,575 voters. There could be an error of three per cent to five per cent in the poll findings in terms of seats.


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