Andhra Pradesh in the time of Naidu

If Andhra Pradesh has not got any project worth over Rs 10 billion in the last five years and the growth has rate has remained more or less static, there must be something seriously wrong. Where did Chandrababu Naidu go wrong? Why isn't the state seeing the results?

''Industries will come if there is a good atmosphere,'' says Narender Surana, past president, Federation of Andhra Pradesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry. ''Having created the right atmosphere, it is for his team to do their best to attract investors/ industrialists. The problem now is that there is no one to carefully follow-up on what is being promised to the industry. It is time they had a nodal agency or person -- preferably a person -- who would be able to translate Naidu's ideas into policies after discussions with industry.''

''There is no second line of defence in the party and government,'' says Professor Ch Shyam Sunder of Osmania University. ''His own people do not understand his policies. The bureaucracy treats him as just another politician.''

The bureaucracy has been blamed for creating bottlenecks in Naidu's Swarna (golden) Andhra Pradesh dream. ''At Davos and at FICCI meetings, Naidu gives big hope,'' says Professor J V Prabhakar Rao, director, Centre for International Business, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam. ''But when they come here, there should be someone to take care of their interests. We have the single window system, but there seems to be no change in the attitude of our bureaucracy. It is not Naidu's fault. Maybe the bureaucracy does not feel like giving it free of cost.''

''While the higher levels of the bureaucracy have adopted to the new reality, the lower levels continue to be intractable unless tackled properly,'' says Surana.

''You see the bureaucracy has to play it safe,'' says Narendra Luther, former Andhra Pradesh chief secretary. ''If there is a change in the government, the official who had signed the file would have to face the music. Then are also the courts. An officer has to be both 'yes sir' and 'no sir'. He has to explain why a certain thing cannot be done without being an obstructionist.''

''Why do you blame the bureaucrats?'' asks V K Srinivasan, former AP additional chief secretary. ''Are the bureaucrats stopping you from buying a helicopter and flying here and there? If Naidu has to succeed, he has to go into details. It is not enough to say I work for 20 hours. It is not necessary... It is important to have leisure.... The state's problem is that it keeps talking in larger terms, but gives no details. We want everybody to come... Randi randi randi (Come come come) you keep saying. But how can you invite a hundred people for dinner when there is food for only 10? The time has come for detailed sectoral plans. The final outcome depends on working out details. That has not yet been done.''

Srinivasan, however, agrees that entrepreneurs have to waste a lot of time in AP in getting all the basic facilities.

''In Maharashtra, if an industrial estate is developed, everything including roads, water and power would be provided,'' says the former additional chief secretary. ''But in AP, despite the setting up of an investment promotion board, you have to go to different departments for different things. The scene has not changed at all over the years. As a result entrepreneurs tend to lose steam even before their units are set up. In such a situation, how can we expect industrialists to do well? Former Indian ambassador to the US, Abid Hussain used to joke, 'In AP, single window means you have to go to the eleventh window.' Even Naidu has been talking of single window. But we do not know which window he is referring to. (laughs.) You see the energy gets dissipated. That is why the casualty factor is very high in AP.''

So flawed is the much-touted single-window policy that industrialists would not touch it with a barge pole. ''I would rather go to all the departments concerned,'' says Surana. ''The people manning the single window system have a serious attitude problem, and they only seem to be capable of only pointing out mistakes. No entrepreneurs wants problems, he wants solutions.''

Similar problems crop when entrepreneurs try to use the state's 'digitised administration' which had promised to end their woes of being driven from pillar to post. At the click of a computer button, industrialists could find out at what stage their project is, was the promise. ''Of what use is the system if it just points out the flaws in the projects?'' asks Surana.

The Chandrababu Naidu government had talked of ambitious plans to digitise the state administration, but how much of it has been achieved? ''If you compare what has been done with what eventually needs to be done the progress has been quite insignificant,'' says R Chandrashekhar, AP's IT secretary.

Is it 20 per cent, 25 per cent?

'It may not be very meaningful to talk in percentage terms,'' he says. ''I would not look at this as a project, but as a process. So it is the process which needs to be put in place.''

How long do we need to set the ball rolling?

''To put the process firmly on track, and to set in motion a clear process by which things are all moving in the right direction, would require two years,'' he says. ''But if you ask me how long the whole process would take for implementation, the answer is that it could even be 10 years.''

However, Gutta Prasad, joint director, IT department, AP government, says the AP secretariat campus computerisation programme has been taken up in a big way. ''As a result the number of PCs in the state secretariat have increased from 65 in the pre-Naidu era to 600 now,'' he says.

Agreeing with the figure for the secretariat, Chandrashekhar says, ''We don't really have that kind of census of the computers in the state.''

However, the present level of computerisation would fall into perspective if one considers the number of state government employees -- the state employs at least 650,000 people.

Explaining the slow pace of growth, Prasad says, ''We have to learn while implementing the project. No such project has been implemented anywhere in the country.''

As for wiring the entire state, connectivity has been established till the district level so far with the Andhra Pradesh State Wide Area Network.

Does it mean all the offices in the 23 districts have been wired? I did not find any such facility at the district level.

''The network now includes only the collectors offices,'' says Prasad. ''This enables the CM to hold teleconferences with the top district official.''

So when does the government plan to extend the network to other offices in the district, and to the 1,100 mandals where stand-alone machines have been installed at the sub-treasury and the sub-registrar's offices (several of these machines were installed even before Naidu became chief minister in 1995)?

''While the first phase of the network has been done by the state government, subsequent growth will have to be fuelled by demand, actual demand for the services that are created,'' says Chandrashekhar.

Simply put, the project would not be completed by 2001, as claimed by the government in December 1997.

The Naidu government's most ambitious computerisation project, the Andhra Pradesh Value Added Network was shelved earlier this year following an assurance given to the AP high court. The project, which was a joint venture between the state government and the Consortium of Singapore Companies, had run into rough weather due to the militant mood of the opposition parties and government employees.

Offering facilities like online payment of sales tax, water and power bills, renewal of driving licences and transfer of vehicles, APVAN would have pumped some credibility into Naidu's digital dreams. ''Organised propaganda by unions and Opposition leaders was primarily responsible for the shelving of the project,'' says a top official.

''It is immaterial whether a particular project has been shelved or not. But the objective of providing convenient services to the people has very much remained the central theme of the government's efforts,'' says Chandrashekhar.

So today in most secretariat departments -- sadly, including the IT department -- what one finds is not electronic governance. On the contrary, the same old dusty files with the unmistakable red tape are omnipresent. Barring a computer or two, several computers had either been switched off or had been flashing screen savers.

''He has done some decoration there (in the secretariat),'' says Professor Narasimha Reddy. ''Even a small company can conduct teleconferences. What is the big deal? This is the sort of farce he has indulged in.''

''The Andhra Pradesh government is buying windows, and billing Gates,'' laughs V K Srinivasan. ''I won't say nothing has been done. Only in parts. Some of our officers are brilliant, but they are not taking the rest of the system with them.''

With firm steps, perhaps the state can be digitised in a decade or two. But nobody knows how long it would take to put the education system back on the rails.

''They have done a lot of things to make it further useless,'' Alur Chandrasekhar of the Human Rights Action of Anantapur. Like what? ''Donations. Hundreds and hundreds of colleges have come up. Nearly 80 per cent of these are in the private sector. They cannot be called colleges. They are huts. They don't have any infrastructure.''

''There are 400 colleges -- 120 of these are in Hyderabad -- in the state offering the bachelor of computer application course,'' says Professor J V Prabhakar Rao, director, Centre for International Business, Andhra University. ''You can imagine the quality of the education offered.''

No thought has been spared for education, and several educationists agree that it is in a complete mess now.

''Adequate attention is not being paid to education, except technical education. There is too much of IT,'' says Professor R V R Chandrasekhara Rao, former vice-chancellor of the Commonwealth Open University. ''The same steamroller of privatisation and globilisation does not work for education. He has neglected the area. Not much of interest, not much of thinking has gone into it. I have not come across an education policy. That is a big inadequacy.

''They are taken in by globalisation, and the so-called prestigious institutions,'' he says. ''His constant hi-tech refrain has also affected the educational psyche.''

''Minority donation colleges are making a killing, and killing the education system,'' says another Andhra University professor.

''We have not done all that well in literacy,'' says V K Srinivasan. ''We are still below the national average while our population growth has been much above the national average.''

With a literacy rate of 44.09 per cent, the state ranked 26th among Indian states in 1991.

''The real weakness of the AP government is that it has no manpower policy,'' says V K Srinivasan. ''Either for the youth or the experienced people.''

While the youth bear the brunt of a crumbling economy, the state government did little to alleviate their miseries with good welfare schemes. Or at least the schemes came rather late, with Naidu changing tack from hi-tech schemes to welfare programmes only after the 1998 Lok Sabha election drubbing.

Naidu has been against free lunches right from the word go, and, obviously, political compulsions have driven into the lap of welfare schemes. ''He has contempt for welfare measures,'' says Professor Narasimha Reddy. ''He had always tried to create the impression that he was for development while NTR was for welfare measures.''

Talking about the compromise, Professor R V R Chandrasekhara Rao says, ''Even the best of men have to attend to both these aspects. And he is certainly not the best of men.''

With an eye on the election, the state government had moved too fast, too soon on this front. So for every beneficiary today, there are at least 10 others who are seething with rage as they have been left out.

''Yes I agree he is not 100 per cent successful,'' says Professor Chandra Mouli, head, political science department, S V University, Tirupati. ''By starting too many programmes, he has aroused too many expectations among the possible beneficiaries. For one of the schemes for instance, 35,000 possible beneficiaries were identified in Chittoor district. But they had only 3,500 implements for the artisans. So 90 per cent of the people are frustrated, and dejected.''

''When you implement schemes in a rash, before a poll, where is the time to plan?'' asks Professor J V Prabhakar Rao of Andhra University.

But few are confident about the efficacy of non-productive doles like the subsidised liquefied petroleum gas scheme.

''It is being made out as if his personal property is being doled out,'' says Professor Ch Shyam Sunder. ''It is not so. Any government or chief minister should not think that development can be achieved by opiating the people. What does the government plan to achieve by giving subsidised gas connections? Such dole does not help them in the long run... How deep DWCRA, Janmabhoomi have gone in people's minds is not known. But these are good schemes.''

''When you are not able to continue the Rs 2 a kg rice scheme, how are you able to give subsidised gas connections?'' asks an Andhra University professor. ''Maybe such contradictory policy decisions are sending out conflicting signals.... Moreover, how do the poor who cannot afford subsidised rice, buy gas refills at Rs 160? I am sure they will sell the gas connection in two days.''

So do the meaningless welfare schemes put a further burden on the state exchequer which already seems strained because of the raising debt.

''There won't be a financial crisis as Naidu has invested in areas where the government would not lose money,'' says Narender Surana. ''He has done a wonderful job by increasing tariff to larger agricultural and industrial units. The revenue, I am told, has gone up by 10 per cent.''

''The government claims that the World Bank loan comes with an interest of 8-10 per cent,'' says an Andhra University professor. ''But, in real terms, the interest works out to 15 to 20 per cent if one considers like the falling rupee.''

''I don't agree with his pattern of mobilisation of resources as it is highly debt-oriented,'' says V K Srinivasan. ''Moreover the present investments are not always productive. If there is someone to lend, why not accept the loans seems to be the mindset. There is no commitment to posterity. We can't behave like some African country.''

''The gamble is that if the state develops, there would be no burden on the exchequer,'' says Professor Narasimha Reddy. ''If it doesn't? That is the big question.''

''However, I don't think we are on the verge of a crisis because of this,'' says V K Srinivasan.

The Naidu government has roped in McKinsey to draw up the Vision 2020 document, a blueprint for ushering in a Swarna (golden) Andhra Pradesh in 20 years. McKinsey had finalised the report based on the submissions made by 14 task forces comprising local experts.

''The basic work was done by experts from within the state,'' says Narendra Luther, the former chief secretary, who was on one of the task forces. ''The first part was done well, and there was no need to rope in McKinsey ... But Naidu wanted the label of an international consultancy so that world aid agencies could be easily convinced.''

''I feel Naidu, (his cabinet collegues) Ashok Gajapathi Raju and Devendra Goud are quite competent to formulate the plan,'' says V K Srinivasan. ''They have enough knowledge, experience and capacity to dream about Andhra Pradesh. Why don't they have the confidence? When you bring in an outsider, he may get the plan right by trial and error. But his priorities would never be right.''

''If nothing else, the Vision 2020 document has made the bureaucrats dream,'' says Luther.

''If this government or the next one goes along those lines, there will be a healthy growth in the long term,'' says Narender Surana.

However, Professor Narasimha Reddy dismisses it as a 'celluloid vision'. ''You talk of 9 per cent growth, 35 crores of investment. There are too many unrealistic projections. So much is loathsome... Such serious work is contracted to McKinsey, and they take it up as a marketing exercise, like selling soaps. It is full of false projections.''

''Such reports might be acceptable to the World Bank,'' says V K Srinivasan. ''But all good development plans stem from people who know the state well. Not from tie-wearing people who ask in a clipped accent, 'What is Telangana?' When so many experts are available in the state, why should we hire outsiders?''

Another complaint against Naidu is that his working style has put a lot of pressure on his staff while depriving him of leisure without which it is impossible to do creative work.

''I am worried about this man,'' says Professor R V R Chandrasekhara Rao. ''He is so young, but thinks of work all the time. No leisure, no relaxation, not even a drink. Leisure is also important.''

''The bureaucracy has been made to run too fast, too much,'' says Luther. ''How long can you work 20 hours a day? A senior IAS official recently had a nervous breakdown.'' Does Naidu also work like that? ''That is another criticism I have against him. He should not do that.... There is also too much of centralisation.''

''I don't think one person can attempt to do everything in a large state like Andhra Pradesh,'' says V K Srinivasan. ''When you plan you must have a vision, when try to execute the plan you look for details and when you monitor you must pursue the instrumentation panel approach (look for the amber signals). If he had conserved his energies for conceptualisation and delegated the execution to personnel who could go into the right kind of details, he would have been much more successful.

"In the first six months, Naidu and his team should have sat and drawn up a good blueprint. They did not do this... My point is not that he is not doing anything. He is doing something. But when you doing something you have to see the results... People are becoming very impatient,'' says the former civil servant.

''He has centralised everything, and this may boomerang as there is a lot of dissidence in the party,'' says Professor A Prasanna Kumar, retired rector, Andhra University. ''Maybe Naidu fears that he would meet the same fate as NTR.''

''There is dissension in the party, but no rivalry,'' says Professor R V R Chandrasekhara Rao. ''I don't know whether it is going to be an advantage in the long run. If there is a rival, one can easily tackle him. However, dissension can be mobilised, canalised by an individual, and suddenly a rival comes up. He should realise his own history. The biography of his father-in-law should not become his autobiography.''

The middle classes rave about his teleconferences with district collectors. ''Teleconferencing is not merely an image-building exercise,'' says D V Subba Rao, former Vishakapatnam mayor who is presently with the BJP. ''But it has put the bureaucrats on their toes.''

However, the public lashing seems to have had a demoralising effect on the bureaucracy. ''How can a collector work if he sits before the telephone all the time?'' asks Dr C V Raja Reddy, a leading medical practitioner in Srikakulam.

Naidu has been warning the people that the state's development clock would be set back by about 20 years if he loses the assembly election. ''That is not true,'' says B V R Mohan Reddy of Infotech Enterprises Limited. ''He is a politician, and so has to say such things for survival. Even if he is not in power, the state will continue to go forward. Maybe there would be slower growth.''

''I don't agree with this contention,'' says Narender Surana. ''I appreciate his good work. But how can anyone say there is no alternative to himself?''

''This is the age of competition,'' says Professor A Prasanna Kumar, retired rector, Andhra University. ''The Congress will say it will do better.''

''The dynamism which he has given to the state would be lost. I would prefer that he should be given at least one more chance,'' says Professor R V R Chandrasekhara Rao.

''In case he loses the poll, it means people have not understood the fruits of his leadership,'' says Professor Chandra Mouli.

But his most ardent admirers cannot miss the strong undercurrent against the TDP. ''An anti-incumbency syndrome is working,'' says Professor A Prasanna Kumar. ''All said and done AP has been a Congress stronghold. If the Congress had done well, it would never have lost. It is not easy for Chandrababu Naidu to win against the Congress. And we do not know who the Communists are going to hit. Moreover, there is an iconoclastic streak in the voters. 'Let us punish these leaders,' they may sometimes say.''

''He is facing a uphill task because of the long gestation period of his projects,'' says D V Subba Rao. ''How much software income can you generate in three years? That is why he keeps saying, 'Give me another five years.' ''

''In India, elections have never been fought on issues and performance,'' says K Satyanarayana Rao, a leading advocate in Khammam. '''I don't like him, so I will vote him out,' seems to be the outlook.''

''Naidu is like Karna,'' says P Sarangapani, an auto-rickshaw driver in Khammam. ''How can he win when he has the curse of the Communists, the Majlis...? He should win. He has done a good job.''

Such sentiments may not make any sense to the rural masses who are battling the pangs of hunger. Borrowing a line from Neil Diamond, Chandrababu Naidu may say, 'If there were no dreams, if there were dreamers, how can there be development?'

How many people will understand the passion of his dreams, especially when they keep changing? Remember how, after splashing the media with his hi-tech schemes for years, Naidu does not even make a mention of them in the present TDP manifesto?

Besides, if the chameleon-like dreams do not leave behind even a fading trail of industrial and agricultural development, how does one arrest the people's frustration? Of course, he has done exceptionally well in improving roads and the power situation, but this seems to have made the right impact only on the urban middle class and the elite. The rural masses are still waiting for someone to fulfil the expectations created by his high decibel propaganda.

No wonder a silent rebellion has been lurking in rural Andhra as Naidu wages his do-or-die battle. If Naidu has unveiled his productive subsidies a little earlier, perhaps the rebellion would have been crushed. But now, with the Congress promise of free power proving a irresistible bait, Naidu perhaps expects miracles to save his dreams.