Australia ageing

Daniel Laidlaw

Was Australia's outstanding run of recent success akin to the bright explosion of a dying star?

Since the end of the Indian tour and the subsequent selection of the Ashes squad to tour England, that question has gradually grown more troubling as the future of the world champions is analysed. For a team that has just had a world record streak of 16 consecutive Test victories snapped, the likelihood of an imminent spiral seems remote. But despite those recent results, the composition of the Australian team warrants a closer consideration of the possibility. It could just be possible that Australia has shone at its brightest and is about to commence fading out into a period of decline.

This is not an over-reaction to the series loss in India. At the end of a long season, an honest examination of the future was inevitable, perhaps brought into sharper focus by recent defeat. The fact is that Australia is an ageing team. The average age of the side that played the third Test in Chennai is 31. Its two best batsmen are nearing the end of their careers, its best spinner is past his prime, and its best fast bowler is currently at his peak. While the present is spectacularly successful, the future is uncertain as an evolutionary cycle reaches its conclusion.

Champion teams that cultivate sustained success usually maintain an ideal balance of youth and experience. As the senior players retire, the young tyros move through the ranks to replace them in a perpetual sporting cycle designed to keep a team at its optimal level. Presently, Australia possesses the experience but is lacking the next generation of youth to guarantee its place at the top. Could it fall from unparalleled heights of success to mediocrity within the next five years?

It seems unlikely, but consider how rapidly West Indies plunged in the past five years. Since losing at home in 1995, West Indies have been abysmal away from home as the next generation of great players, taken for granted, failed to emerge. In hindsight, we can say that West Indies did not have a system in place to safeguard the future, and that signs of decline were evident. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that something similar could be said about the current Australian team five years from now.

Simon Katich has been touted as the next Aussie batting star for two years and is already 25 without having played a Test. Damien Martyn is next in line for a regular middle order berth at 29. Even if these two do make a smooth transition to regular team members, the real problems may arise several years further on when Slater, Hayden and Langer all reach retirement age, and Katich and co. are expected to fill the role of senior batsmen. It is assumed that the next tier will step up, but while they are not in the team, it remains largely unproven.

Of equal concern to the dearth of young batsmen is the lack of new spinning talent. India laments its lack of spinners yet can easily list half a dozen emerging names, whereas Australia struggles to find any. 17-year-old leg-spinner Cameron White made a promising debut for Victoria last season, and left-arm wrist spinner Shannon Tubb has played a couple of matches for Tasmania, but there are no others on the domestic first-class scene who could be considered future Australian candidates.

Stuart MacGill should be Warne's successor but remains a wonderful talent stuck in stasis behind him. At 30, only 18 months younger than Warne, MacGill is too old to be considered the future answer. Of course, whether he should have replaced Warne already is another argument altogether.

The fast bowling ranks are also thin, for outside of a serviceable group including Michael Kasprowicz, Andy Bichel and Adam Dale there is no-one readily identifiable as a rising match-winner. All of this casts long-term future of the top-ranked Test nation into some jeopardy.

Fortunately Australia has youth on the side of its incumbent fast bowlers, with young guns Gillespie, Lee and now Nathan Bracken all making an impact. In the case of Lee and Bracken, they each rose rapidly to national honours, a positive indication that fresh talent can make a quick ascension with minimal prior warning.

Unfortunately, not enough batsmen are being picked on potential. One aspect to admire about Pakistan's cricket is its penchant for affording young players an opportunity to adjust to international cricket. Even if they fail initially, at least they have had the experience to build upon. It's a worthwhile policy. In Australia's case some, like Lee, make the transition painlessly. Others, like Scott Muller, struggle and fade away. Nothing is lost in the attempt. Harbhajan Singh had prior Test experience as a teenager before truly emerging in the recent series. A taste of the big time surely serves as a greater incentive at first-class level.

A different mindset seems to apply to selection of batsmen, however. While bowlers are frequently tried and discarded, or selected according to conditions, it is evidently much harder to gain entry as a batsman. While Brett Lee exploded onto the scene two seasons ago, the last batsman to debut for Australia was the experienced Darren Lehmann, three years ago. The last one still in the team was Ponting, in 1995/'96.

If Australia had applied the same selection criteria to Andrew Symonds as it did to Lee, there is no telling how far Symonds could have developed by now. While not churning out the same quantity of first-class runs as some others, a player of Symonds' immense potential often tends to adapt naturally to a higher level of competition. If he is overlooked too long, that ability will be lost.

Experience is an essential ingredient in a successful team. But in order to maintain a sufficient experience level, a regular influx of young players is required. Presently, Australia is jammed at the experience end, with a paucity of new talent.

Is it possible Australia could be the next side to fall from glory to despair through a lack of consideration for the future? Only time will tell, but the danger definitely exists.

Mail Daniel Laidlaw