A new report from Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs reveals that generative artificial intelligence could put up to 12% of India's non-agricultural workforce at risk of substitution, while simultaneously complementing nearly half of all jobs.
Key Points
- Generative AI poses a substitution risk for up to 12% of India's non-agricultural workforce.
- Conversely, 42-48% of non-agricultural employment in India is likely to be complemented by Gen-AI.
- Job declines are expected in routine clerical and professional roles, while physical occupations may see an increase.
- IT-enabled business-process services and telecom face higher substitution risk due to repetitive tasks.
- Gen-AI adoption could boost India's annual labour-productivity growth by 0.4 percentage points over a decade.
Up to 12 per cent of India's non-agricultural workforce is at risk of substitution because of generative artificial intelligence, a foreign brokerage said on Wednesday.
In a special report, Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs said the labour market impacts of gen-AI are expected to be "uneven" and it looks gen-AI as a medium-term positive for India's growth outlook.
Understanding AI's Impact on Indian Employment
"Gen-AI could perform 9-17 per cent of the tasks currently undertaken by India's non-agricultural workforce...we estimate 8-12 per cent of non-agricultural employment is at risk of substitution, while 42-48 per cent of non-agricultural employment is likely to be complemented," it said, adding that the remainder of the employment will be unaffected.
Employment declines are likely to be concentrated in occupations like routine clerical support, professional and technician, while routine-physical occupations, followed by craft and trade-related workers and machine operators, may see an increase in employment, as physical, manual and interpersonal tasks remain difficult to automate, it said.
Sectoral Risks and Augmentation Opportunities
From a sectoral perspective, IT-enabled business-process services (BPS) and postal and telecom services face greater substitution risk given their concentration in repetitive, codifiable tasks, it said.
Healthcare, education, financial and professional services appear more exposed to AI-related augmentation through diagnostics and data analytics, it said, adding manufacturing is less directly affected given the more physical task mix.
Long-Term Productivity Gains from Gen-AI
The brokerage's baseline suggests Gen-AI adoption could lift annual labour-productivity growth by around 0.4 percentage point over a 10-year period, with a wider range of 0.1 pp to 0.8 pp depending on the complexity of tasks that it is able to perform.
