The $6.5 billion domestic pharmaceutical industry is tipped to touch $23-26 billion by 2010, according to consultancy major Mckinsey. Manufacturing outsourcing is expected to soar from $10 billion to $20-$30 billion in the same period.
In terms of volumes, the share of domestic pharmaceutical companies has gone up from 25 per cent in 1971 to 75 per cent at present.
On the imminent rolling in of the 2005 patent regime, Ajay Piramal, chairman, Nicholas Piramal, said, "There will be no significant impact of the 2005 IPR regime in the medium term. There will be a frenzy of new launches in 2008 and though there will be more MNCs coming in, the competition from domestic companies will be greater."
Piramal was speaking at a 'Leadership Series' seminar organised by the Symbiosis Institute of International Business in Mumbai on Wednesday.
The post-2005 period will see more MNC activity, more contract manufacturing and more basic research by Indian companies. It will also see the survival of 'me too' Indian companies.
But like Mexico, Poland and Brazil where product patent regime was ushered in 10 years ago, the share of on-patent drugs will slip to less than 10 per cent of the total medicine market.