The decisive defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, who are probably fighting their last battle, is partly due to the follies of Prabhakaran during the last four  years and partly  due to  the determined and ruthless manner in which the Sri Lankan Armed Forces have carried out their operations.

Prabhakaran's follies which led to the LTTE's [Images] downfall are its split with Karuna, the legendary conventional fighter from the Eastern Province and his followers, the increasing reliance on terrorism after the desertion of the conventional fighters led by Karuna and Prabhakaran's working  to defeat of former prime minister Ranil Wickremasinghe in the 2006 presidential elections, which were won by Mahinda Rajapaksa.

During its existence, the LTTE had developed a capability for conventional warfare as well as for spectacular acts of terrorism. Its best conventional fighters came from the Eastern Province and many of its suicide terrorists from the Northern Province. Unhappiness among the conventional fighters that the suicide bombers from the North were accorded greater importance and honours by Prabakaran led to their desertion under Karuna's leadership. Karuna later helped the Sri Lankan Army in its operations against the LTTE.

Deprived of the strong conventional capability, the LTTE increasingly relied on terrorism and intimidatory attacks by its small fleet of aircraft in its fight against the Lankan armed forces. Its reliance on terrorism at a time when the international community was developing a policy of zero tolerance for terrorism after 9/11 deprived it of even the little public and political support which it had enjoyed in the West. The European Union countries declared it a terrorist organization and took vigorous action to stop its gun running operations.

No Sri Lankan leader was more sympathetic to the aspirations of the Tamils than former President Chandrika Kumaratunge and  Wickremasinghe. The latter was prepared to concede in a large measure the political demands of the LTTE within a federal set-up. If Prabakaran had responded positively to the gestures from Wickremasinghe, the latter would have enabled the LTTE to retain control of the territory which it had occupied and given it a measure of autonomy in return for the LTTE giving up its demand for an independent Tamil Eelam.

Prabakaran, who  had an inflated belief in his own prowess and in the perceived invincibility of the LTTE, spurned Wickremasinghe's gestures and worked for his defeat in the presidential elections. His calculation that Rajapaksa would be a weak and indecisive President, whose Sinhalese extremism would further polarise relations between the Sinhalese and the Tamils, proved terribly wrong. Rajapaksa turned out to be one of the strongest and clear-headed presidents Sri Lanka [Images] has had. He came to office determined to defeat the LTTE as an insurgent and terrorist organization first before addressing the aspirations of the Tamils.

Rajapaksa gave his armed forces the wherewithal in terms of money and equipment to enable them defeat the LTTE. He also resisted international pressure to reach a political accommodation with the LTTE. He was determined that the political accommodation will be with the Tamils after the defeat of the LTTE and not with the LTTE. The improved morale and capabilities of the Sri Lankan Armed Forces have definitely contributed to their remarkable success in relentlessly rolling back the LTTE from the areas controlled by it, but this success was facilitated by the ruthless use of air strikes against the LTTE.

Did Indian assistance also contribute to the success of the SL Armed Forces? The Government of India denies having given any offensive equipment and training  to the SL Armed Forces, but Sri Lankan officers and leaders have themselves been saying that the success of their Armed Forces was made possible by Indian assistance. The failure of the Government of India to counter these claims has created growing suspicions not only among the Sri Lankan Tamils, but also among sections of the people of Tamil Nadu that the Government of Dr.Manmohan Singh [Images] has not been very straightforward and that it had given more assistance to Sri Lanka than it has admitted.

The LTTE's brutal assassination of Rajiv Gandhi [Images] in May 1991 created a revulsion for it in Tamil Nadu. If it has since managed to rehabilitate itself in the eyes of some sections of public opinion in Tamil Nadu, the Manmohan Singh Government and its senior functionaries cannot escape the responsibility for it. The  failure of the Government to condemn the air strikes and its seeming helplessness in the face of the humanitarian disaster affecting over 200,000 Tamils have cost it considerable public support in Tamil Nadu and made support for the Sri Lankan Tamils once again a popular cause. Rajiv Gandhi's assassination by the LTTE has been forgotten.

People tend to compare what they perceive as Manmohan Singh's helpless attitude in the face of the repeated rejection by the Rajapaksa Government of the requests for a humanitarian approach to Rajiv Gandhi's action in sending the Indian Air Force to drop humanitarian supplies to the Tamils despite strong criticism of the Indian action not only by the SL authorites, but also by the international community.

What next after the defeat of the LTTE? Rajapaksa has been repeatedly promising that he would address the  aspirations of the Tamils for greater political and economic rights. Will a bloated Army and the Sinhalese extremist elements allow him to keep his word even if he wants to or will he, egged on by his army, try to impose a dictated peace on the Tamils? Only Time will tell.  

The writer is  Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India and presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com.