In what has been the most entertaining and closely contested primary season in modern US political history, US Senator and presidential candidate Barack Obama [Images] has seemingly sewn up the Democratic Party's nomination, barring former first lady Hillary Clinton [Images] shirking decorum and throwing a tantrum on the world's largest stage.

Oh, the difference a year makes!

In May 2007, US Senator Clinton seemed a favourite, even before the primary contest truly began. Early polls placed her far atop a heap of contenders, and donations to her campaign set records.

Plus, given the disastrous war in Iraq and a perilous economy, Americans thirsted for change, or, at worst, a return to the Clinton years. Amongst the Democrats, a young US Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, served as Hillary's closest competition, but was written off as a novelty candidate who lacked the political experience necessary to clinch a major party's nomination. Clinton was to waltz through the primary process along a prim-rose path to the White House, stopping to trounce whomever the Republicans dared to place before the Clinton juggernaut, to become America's first female President

But today, a year later, it seems most everyone can hear the same campaign's death knell, can see it in death throes; everyone that is, but Clinton herself. On Tuesday, the citizens of North Carolina cast their votes in emphatic repudiation of Hillary (56 per cent Obama � 42 per cent Clinton), while Indiana failed to deliver consensus on her behalf (51 per cent Clinton � 49 per cent Obama). Now, unless she can engineer a movement that raises the required delegates to win the nomination from 2,024 delegates to 2,209, a Clinton victory is almost a statistical impossibility.

It started in late-2007, when 'Obama-mania' first began to grip the US, and donations to the upstart's campaign came to rival those pouring into Clinton's. Then, in the all-important Iowa caucuses, held on January 3, Obama's grassroots efforts paid off, and he shocked the nation, as well as the Democratic Party establishment, comfortably besting Clinton and US Senator John Edwards.

While Obama rapidly accumulated victories and endorsements (US Senator Ted Kennedy), the Clinton campaign fell into a tailspin, hiring and firing staff, changing its message almost daily. Even while victories in big states like New York and California helped Clinton keep the delegate race close, whispers in Washington maintained that Bill and Hillary had alienated much of the Democratic Party's top brass through their aggressive campaigning. Most experts felt that the statistical chance of a Clinton victory was near nil. It was time to hang it up, bow out gracefully, and endorse Obama in a show of solidarity, they said.

But, almost manically, Clinton pushed forward, using what some experts called, 'Karl Rove tactics', in an effort to undermine Obama's broad appeal. Funnily enough, just as they have for George W Bush [Images] (John Kerry's swiftboat fiasco comes to mind), the 'Karl Rove tactics' worked. When unfavourable footage of Obama's pastor, Jeremiah Wright, first surfaced, it was Clinton's campaign playing them up, not the Republicans.

And every time we saw Obama's spiritual adviser shout 'God Damn America', we saw an accompanying drop in Obama's approval rating. By mid-April, Obama's once double-digit nation wide lead over Clinton had disintegrated, down to a paltry 1 per cent. While Clinton clinked beer mugs with rural voters, Obama made a gaffe, calling those same country folk 'bitter' and claiming they 'cling to guns and religion'.

When Clinton triumphantly smacked Obama in Pennsylvania, the same pundits suggested Obama drop out, as America wasn't ready for a 'liberal elitist' with 'America-loathing, socialist tendencies'. 

But Tuesday's disappointing performance in North Carolina proves Americans still have questions about Hillary, or faith in Obama, or a little bit of both. One thing's clear, she's not yet slayed Obama-mania, and the Illinois Senator seems to have righted the ship and stayed the course through a rocky March and April. The question begs: What now?

More critical than any remaining primary votes is a May 31 meeting in Washington, wherein the Democrats will decide how to handle the Florida [Images] and Michigan dispute. Earlier, those two states' delegates were disqualified as a penalty for moving the primary dates, against Democratic Party wishes. If Clinton can't make those votes count, her campaign's kaput.

If she can, we might not know the Democrat's nominee until August, leaving us a situation unprecedented in modern American political history.

Either way, and unfortunately for the Democrats, at this point, neither a Hillary nor an Obama win will be boosted by an emphatic knockout blow. There's been too much blood let. Instead, the victor will have limped his or her way to the finish line, dodging and parrying blows, seeming less and less invincible heading into November's general election, where decorated War hero and everyman, US Senator John McCain [Images] awaits.

Karl Rove, the real Karl Rove, is likely licking his chops.