The general elections hold the key for the market in the next fiscal amid projections of lower economic growth in the country and fears of recession in the developed countries prolonging, experts have said.

Analysts said as the markets await the outcome of general elections for a definite direction, the benchmark Sensex is likely to scale 15,000 levels by the end of the fiscal year 2010, a recovery of 55 per cent from its current trading levels of 9,700 points.

"An unstable government would add to the uncertainties in the market and the Sensex may move down by 1,500 to 2,000 points. If there is a stable government, we will see the index more than doubling by the end of fiscal year 2010," Arun Kejriwal, director of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services, said.

CNI Research CMD Kishor Ostwal said, "The outlook for fiscal year 2010 looks good and the first Sensex target of 15,000 is achievable."

Marketmen said the main triggers for the equity markets would be the general elections and the fourth quarter results, as foreign fund flows, which mainly drive the Indian equity markets, are likely to take a back seat as funds are facing redemption pressures in their home countries.

India's bellwether index Sensex which was quoted at 15,644.44 points on March 31, 2008, shed 37.94 per cent this fiscal, a loss of a whopping 5,935.94 points.

Markets in corp gov soup

The ripple effects of the global economic downturn marked the beginning of fiscal year 2009, but as the current financial year drew to a close pledging and corporate governance issues came as a shocker for the Indian equity market.

The most striking development that rocked regulatory authorities in the domestic as well as the international bourses was the Satyam [Get Quote] fiasco, wherein the founder chairman Ramalinga Raju admitted to a whopping Rs 7,800-crore (Rs 78 billion) fraud.

The financial fraud, dubbed as India's Enron, overshadowed the problems of Indian businesses which was then busy tiding over the global economic meltdown.

The incident set alarm bells with market regulator Sebi coming out with various new disclosures norms to strengthen the corporate governance of Indian companies and to prevent such fraudulent incidents from happening again.

The Indian market declined 38 per cent from 15,644 points since March 2008, to the current 9,700 levels.

In January, the market regulator Sebi came out with mandatory norms to disclose pledging of shares, following the sudden revelations by Satyam promoters that all their stakes were pledged with lenders and that a large portion of it had been sold.

Besides, the market regulator had also said that it will examine whether a need for tweaking existing regulations to enhance compliance transparency and efficiency in the corporate system.