Bulls may be pinning hopes on Diwali fireworks at Dalal Street [Get Quote], but fund managers are uncertain whether this time around the 'festival of lights' will again trigger a historic trend of mostly positive movements.

According to an analysis by global mutual fund major Fidelity, nine out of the past 10 years have seen a better performance in the stock market after Diwali celebrations.

However, fund managers are uncertain whether the trend would be repeated this year, as the domestic market is suffering from the impact of global financial crisis and bearish sentiment worldwide.

The Indian stock market has seen a value erosion of close to 50 per cent since the beginning of this year.

Over the last 10 years, the average 30-day return before Diwali has been 0.26 per cent, against a 6.96 per cent return in the one-month period after the celebrations.

The best year, with regard to returns after Diwali was 2005, with a return of 12.90 per cent against 8.55 per cent before the festival, the report said.

According to the analysis, the average 30-day return before Diwali was 6.97 per cent in 2007, while 30 days after the celebrations the returns increased to 7.70 per cent.

In 2007, the benchmark Sensex had soared over 45 per cent, from 14,000 level to over the 20,000-mark.

However, the index has been battered since February this year and bearish sentiment has pulled the bellwether index below the psychological 10,000-level, following cues from global market.