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Interest rates to remain stable or moderate: Economists
 
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January 09, 2008 18:00 IST
Last Updated: January 09, 2008 18:06 IST

With inflation rate under control, economists expect interest rates to remain stable to moderate in the Reserve Bank's quarterly review of monetary policy later this month.

"We are in a situation of relatively comfortable growth and inflation numbers. Interest rate increase is ruled out, choice is between status quo and cut," Standard and Poor's Chief Economist (Asia-Pacific) Subir Gokaran told reporters in New Delhi after the pre-Budget meeting between Finance Minister P Chidambaram and economists.

He said he would wait for industrial production numbers slated to be released on Friday before giving any definitive opinion on the issue. A status quo on interest rates is very likely, he added.

"We are not seeing enough signs of slowdown in industry, which was earlier an indication to warrant a cut at this point. May be that situation changes when RBI announces its policy in April. At this point of time, rate cut possibility is not very high," he said.

When asked that numbers of six crucial infrastructure sectors are not very encouraging, Gokaran said he did not give much importance to these figures. "IIP is better indicator and average IIP is fairly high," he said.

Hit by supply constraints, infrastructure industries put up a dismal performance in November 2007 with their growth plummeting to 5.3 per cent from 9.6 per cent a year ago.

ICRIER Director and Chief Executive Rajiv Kumar said if interest rates are cut, inflation and liquidity will not be stoked. Even after rising by 0.5 per cent, inflation was just 3.5 per cent for the week ended December 22.

Kumar said if interest rates are not slashed, the differential between world interest rates, which are falling, and domestic rates will bring in foreign capital.

"This is not going to help anything, then cost of capital will also hurt growth, consumption and investment. So, interest rates can be brought down without hurting inflation, which is in control," he said.

Economists views came a few days after Chidambaram wanted banks to cut deposit and interest rates by 50 basis points to spur consumption and investment.


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