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Will India be world's No.2 economy?
Sridhar Krishnaswami in Washington
 
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April 02, 2008 20:08 IST
The 21st century will belong to Asia in terms of economic growth, with China at the top spot and India or the United States coming in the second place, a top intelligence official has said.      

When it comes to "demographics", India and the US are showing signs of a balanced, growing and prosperous society that is "ongoing" into the future, Admiral Mike McCullen, director in the Office of National Intelligence, told a student audience last week.

"This will be the century of Asia. Think about that. If you're Chinese and you think of yourself as the Middle Kingdom, and you were exploited for 100 years, what is the future," he said.

"Now, we would rail against communism, control, and so on, but think about it: 1.3 billion people growing at a phenomenal rate; the three largest economies in the world -- four largest economies in the world over the next 30 years will grow into this," he said.

"Number one will be China, number two will be the United States or India -- we don't know; one or the other � number four will be Japan. So if you just think in economic terms, you see how it starts to become the century of Asia," McConnell said at the Furman University in South Carolina.

He said in terms of "demographics", Europe, Russia, Japan and China are "cliffs". "When I say cliff, I mean all of a sudden a society that's built on a few at the top supported by a broad base at the bottom is going to be inverted, and a few at the bottom are supporting a lot at the top."

"Now, where are demographics going the other way? Two places: the United States and India. India, for the birth rate; United States because of immigration, and that assures a society that's balanced and growing and prosperous and ongoing into the future," McConnell said.

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