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Inflation to remain high for two months: Citigroup
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March 16, 2007 16:38 IST

Inflation will continue to pinch consumers' pockets till May, by when the government's measures to bring down prices are expected to take effect in a wholesome way, analysts believe.

The rate of price rise soared to 6.46 per cent in the week ended March 3, primarily due to rise in vegetable and cement prices, the latest government data shows.

However, the recent monetary and fiscal measures to contain inflation, base effect and political compulsions would result in inflation coming off to five per cent levels by May, global financial services giant Citigroup said on Friday.

Inflation has been a major concern for the government as well as consumers since it breached RBI's target of 5.5 per cent in October and touched a high of 6.73 per cent in the week ended February 3.

It is likely to remain high over the next two months, analysts warned. "We expect inflation to remain in the 5.5-6.5 per cent range till March/April, and maintain that policy rates could rise by 25 basis points in April," they added.

Citigroup sees fiscal measures helping cool prices, as the government has cut customs duties on metal, capital goods and and cement, while allowing import of wheat and sugar.

It has banned exports of pulses, sugar, skimmed milk powder and forward trading in certain foodgrains, which are regressive measures, the analysts said.

Besides introducing dual-excise structure for cement that penalises producers who charge more, the government has also asked cement companies to freeze prices for a year. "Given that inflation is one macro variable that can potentially bring down a government, we do not rule out additional regressive measures," Citigroup warned.


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