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A stark warning on global warming
 
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November 01, 2006 09:51 IST
Without rapid and substantial spending, global warming will dramatically reduce worldwide productivity, devastate food sources, cause widespread deaths and create hundreds of millions of refugees, reports the Los Angeles Times.

Quoting a major British study commissioned by the British government, which officials called the most comprehensive review of the economics of climate change, it warns that failure to act could cost up to 20 per cent a year in lost income worldwide. Acting now, however, could bring about meaningful control of greenhouse gases at an annual cost of 1 per cent of global gross domestic product, it says.

According to the Times, however, the savings would occur only with the kind of rapid and comprehensive international cooperation on the issue that so far has proved elusive.

The report quoted British officials as saying that "they would take immediate action to legislate carbon-reduction targets, push expanded international carbon-trading programs and move toward reducing carbon emissions in Europe by 30 per cent by 2020 and 60 per cent by 2050. Carbon trading allows companies to exceed emission limits by buying credits from those that are below their emission targets."

While describing the report by senior government economist Nicholas Stern as "a landmark in the struggle against climate change," British Prime Minister Tony Blair, warned that there was a limit to what Britain alone could do, said the Times.

"Britain is more than playing its part," Blair said. "But it is 2 per cent  of worldwide emissions. Close down all of Britain's emissions and in less than two years, just the growth in China's emissions would wipe out the difference. So this issue is the definition of global interdependence."

Noting that the current level of greenhouse gases is already 54 per cent higher than it was before the Industrial Revolution, and could be double that level by 2035, the report said such an increase could raise temperatures by more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit by mid-century and a disastrous 9 degrees by century's end.

'The result would be melting glaciers that trigger floods and reduce snowpacks that supply drinking water, threatening a sixth of the world's population,' says the Times quoting from the report.

'Other effects would include reduced crop yields, leaving hundreds of millions of people unable to produce or purchase sufficient food; an increase in vector-borne diseases; up to 200 million people displaced because of rising sea levels and drought; and the possible extinction of 15 per cent to 40 per cent of species.'

Stern, a former chief economist for the World Bank, said the study found that it was still possible to achieve meaningful temperature controls at a cost equivalent to consumers paying an average of 1 per cent  more for everything they buy, and substantially less than the cost of failing to act, said the Times report. Poor countries will bear the brunt of the effects of climate change, while rich countries must bear the responsibility for emissions reductions.

"The conclusion of the review is essentially optimistic. There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change if we act now and act internationally," the Times quoted Stern as saying. "But the task is urgent. Delaying action, even by a decade or two, will take us into dangerous territory. We must not let this window of opportunity close."


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