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Rediff.com  » Business » India's GDP to grow by 7.6%: NCAER

India's GDP to grow by 7.6%: NCAER

Source: PTI
November 09, 2005 16:56 IST
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With improved agriculture performance, Indian economy is projected to clock 7.6 per cent growth this fiscal, but inflation is likely to average at 5.9 per cent, economic think-tank NCAER said.

"The growth in 2005-06 is expected to increase to 7.6 per cent from 6.9 per cent last year," it said in its quarterly review.

For the next four years, the economy is poised for sustained growth of 7.7 per cent annum for 2006-07 to 2009-10 period, National Council of Applied Economic Research said, adding monsoon remains a major risk factor.

The main source of improvement in GDP growth this fiscal is expected to be from agriculture, which is likely to grow by 3.4 per cent this fiscal from 1.1 per cent in 2004-05.

Industry and services are to improve their performance marginally. "We expect industry and services to grow at eight and nine per cent respectively this year," NCAER said.

The think tank said prices are expected to rise more slowly this fiscal compared to last year.  "Average inflation is expected to be less than six per cent, down from 6.5 per cent last year," it said.

The centre's fiscal deficit is expected to be 4.4 per cent of GDP at market prices,  it said, adding a relatively faster growth of imports, as compared to exports, may result in current account deficit of around 0.4 per cent of GDPMP.

Export growth in dollar terms is likely to decline from over 24 per cent to nearly 22 per cent this year while import growth is also expected to decline from nearly 36 per cent to 26 per cent, NCAER said.

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