'As long as Rane is the point-person, the Sena will never revive its partnership with the BJP.'
Aditi Phadnis reports.
"At the end of the day, a (political) alliance is like a marriage. For it to work, you need to have a spouse, and one mouse," said a Maharashtra politician.
"But people are not always ready to accept that. These are politicians: Human beings who are ambitious, impatient and convinced of their own greatness. Introducing Narayan Rane as a central player in the Maharashtra mix is the surest indication that the Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party, once locked in a marriage, can never come together again," he added.
The breakup of the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance, put together so assiduously by Pramod Mahajan and blessed by the Bharatiya Janata Party's central leadership, is now political history.
But the parting of ways between Narayan Rane, once a dedicated Shiv Sainik, and the Shiv Sena is considerably more personal.
Rane -- who left Sena when Uddhav Thackeray took the reins of the party and ahead of the 2004 assembly election -- and openly criticised his leadership qualities, first joined the Congress and then tried floating his own set-up.
Finally, he joined the BJP, which kept him waiting for a prize.
That came in the Union Cabinet reshuffle when Rane was elevated as MSME minister. His portfolio was earlier with another Maharashtra stalwart, Nitin Gadkari.
Party activists, who were used to Gadkari's towering presence on the one hand and former chief minister Devendra Fadnavis on the other, now found there was another pole of power: Rane.
While Fadnavis has been measured and moderate in his criticism of the Sena and many thought he could eventually be persuaded to become the bridge over troubled waters, with Rane, it is different.
"Three or four months ago, the BJP tried a rapprochement with the Shiv Sena. Now, by pushing Rane to centre-stage, they've burnt their bridges. As long as Rane is the point-person, the Sena will never revive its partnership with the BJP," said a Congress leader.
So, is the relationship between the Shiv Sena and the BJP well and truly over? It would appear so, even if many in the BJP wonder if using Rane to induce smoking points within the Sena is a wise move.
There is a school of thought in the BJP that believes the 2019 assembly election -- which the BJP and Sena contested together -- was won by the alliance, fair and square.
If the alliance was not able to form a government, it was because of the colliding personalities of Fadnavis and Thackeray. So, if Fadnavis was taken out of Maharashtra, and replaced by someone amenable, the Sena-BJP alliance would recover lost glory.
There was widespread speculation that Fadnavis would find a place in the July Cabinet reshuffle.
"They thought: 'Let Uddhav remain CM, and make two deputy chief ministers. That way nobody will lose face and we will be able to control Maharashtra'. But Fadnavis was smart," said a leader in the Sena-led Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi government.
"He knows the power of being chief minister. So, he refused to shift out. And now, by lobbing Rane, they've shot home the bolt," the MVA leader added.
This much is true: That the depth of personal bitterness between Thackeray and Rane precludes any understanding between their two parties.
In his biography published a few years ago, Rane notes that while his devotion to Balasaheb Thackeray was blind and unquestioning, it was hard to find the same respect for Uddhav.
When the final parting of ways came, it was to his son's ultimatum that Balasaheb bowed: 'Jar Rane pakshaat parat yetil, tar me ani Rashmi Matoshree sodnaar (If Rane comes back to the party, Rashmi and I will leave Matoshree),' he says about the final meeting with Balasaheb at which Uddhav and he were present, adding: 'Even today, I maintain my stand from 2005 that there is no future for the Shiv Sena under Uddhavji's leadership. He may be a great human being but he's a terrible leader.'
In the current circumstances, the BJP would likely contest all upcoming elections in Maharashtra on its own. The biggest of them in the immediate future is the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation.
"We have no pretensions about our strength in the BMC," said a top Congress leader. "But if the BJP is putting its faith in Narayan Rane to help them win the BMC, it might be in for a shock."
