UP verdict shows BJP's rising popularity since 2012

The Bharatiya Janata Party has more than doubled its vote share in Uttar Pradesh to nearly 40 per cent since the last assembly elections though there is a slight drop since the Lok Sabha polls of 2014.

The BJP did even better in the neighbouring Uttarakhand with 46.5 per cent vote share, though down from nearly 56 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

In Punjab, where the Congress was headed for a victory, the BJP saw its vote share decline to just about 5.4 per cent, down from nearly 9 per cent in the 2014 elections. The party also saw its vote share drop in Goa to nearly 32.5 per cent from over 54 per cent though it saw a big jump in Manipur to close to 36.2 per cent from 12 per cent.

The BJP's rival parties -- the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress -- have all seen their vote shares decline sharply since the 2012 assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh though there is surprisingly not much change since their share in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014.

While the BJP has emerged victorious in UP after 14 years with over 3.4 crore votes, the rivals appeared to have failed in converting their vote shares into an equivalent seat share.

As per the results, the BJP has got a grant victory by winning 311 seats in the 403-member Assembly.

In terms of the vote share data, as available with the Election Commission, the BJP was polled 39.7 per cent, followed by the BSP with 22.2 per cent and SP 21.8 per cent. Congress could get only 6.3 per cent (over 54 lakh votes).

Among others, the Rashtriya Lok Dal got less than 2 per cent vote share and the CPI had just 0.2 per cent, while 0.9 per cent or over 7.5 lakh votes were cast for NOTA (None Of The Above).

Independent candidates won three seats with 2.6 per cent votes. 

The BJP had got 42.6 per cent vote share in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh while the same was just 15 per cent in the last assembly elections in the state in 2012.

The SP's vote share has come down from 22.3 per cent in 2014, while the drop is sharper from over 29 per cent in 2012.

For the Mayawati-led BSP, the vote share went up from below 20 per cent in 2014, though down from nearly 26 per cent in 2012. For the Congress, it has been a path down the hill from 7.5 per cent in 2014 and from 11.6 per cent in 2012. 

In Goa, the seat tally was seen divided between the BJP and the Congress, with the latter having an edge. However, in terms of voteshare the BJP led with 32.5 per cent, as against the Congress' 28.4 per cent.

Manipur saw the Congress getting 28 seats as against BJP's 21 but voteshare ratio was again the opposite -- BJP got 36.2 per cent, while Congress got 35.1 per cent.

In Punjab, the BJP and its ally Shiromani Akali Dal got 5.4 per cent and 25.2 per cent votes, respectively, lower than Congress' 38.5 per cent share.

The Aam Aadmi Party, which has a government in Delhi and was shown in exit polls to have done well, got nearly 24 per cent votes, but looked much weaker on seat tally with just 20 seats. It did worse with just about 6.3 per cent share and not a single seat in Goa, the other state where AAP had sought to claim a presence.

In Uttarakhand, another state where the BJP got a massive majority just like UP, the Congress polled 33.5 per cent, while independents also got more than 10 per cent votes.

Another comparison shows that BJP's vote share has surged by 25 per cent in over two and half decades since 1991 Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh (31.45 per cent).

In Uttarakhand, BJP's vote share has risen by 83 per cent since 2002, when the first state polls were held.

Among the five states that went to elections, Goa and Manipur saw BJP's vote share going up while the party's fortunes have taken a hit in Punjab.

During the period from 1991 to 2017 Assembly elections, the BSP has more than doubled its vote share to 22.2 per cent. In 1991, the same stood at 9.44 per cent.

The Congress party has seen its vote share tumble by 63 per cent to mere 6.3 per cent whereas SP's pie touched 21.9 per cent in the latest polls.

In Goa and Manipur also, the BJP has seen its vote share jump manifold in the last 25 years.

The party's vote share in Goa is higher than 9.05 per cent recorded in 1994 polls. Similarly, the figure is 36.1 per cent in Manipur whereas it was just 3.35 per cent in 1995.

However in Punjab, the party's vote share has come down to 5.2 per cent. In 1992, the vote share was 16.48 per cent.

The Congress has seen its vote share rise in Uttarakhand and Manipur. The party's vote share touched 34 per cent in Manipur, an increase of nearly 19 per cent compared with 28.65 per cent seen in 1995 assembly elections.

In the case of Uttarakhand, Congress' vote share has gone up to 33.6 per cent in the latest polls whereas it was 26.91 per cent in 2002 elections.

Photograph: Adnan Abidi/Reuters