rediff.com

NewsApp (Free)

Read news as it happens
Download NewsApp

Available on  

Rediff News  All News 
Rediff.com  » News » Which way will WB, Odisha and Bihar go if LS polls are held today

Which way will WB, Odisha and Bihar go if LS polls are held today

January 20, 2014 22:05 IST

Which way will WB, Odisha and Bihar go if LS polls are held today

     Next

Next

CNN-IBN & CSDS has conducted a nationwide election tracker that covers the eastern states of Bihar, West Bengal and Odisha, the southern states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala; Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh of West India and three northern states of Rajasthan, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.

Lets’s look today at the eastern states of Bihar, West Bengal and Odisha.

The seat projection as per the survey says in West Bengal for the Trinamool Congress is between 20 and 28, Left Front 7 and 13, Indian National Congress 5 and 9, Bharatiya Janata Party 0 and 2.

The key findings of the survey say that the TMC is projected to get 33 per cent vote share if Lok Sabha polls are held on today in West Bengal.

If it slips further, it is likely to secure only 25 per cent vote share if LS polls are held today in WB cong likely to end up third in vote share; projected to get 19 per cent votes in WB.

WEST BENGAL

VOTE SHARE

UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JULY 2013 – 15%

UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JANUARY 2014 – 7%

Party/Front

2009 Actual

July 2013

Estimated Vote

January 2014

Estimated Vote

INC

14

22

19

BJP

6

12

14

TMC

31

32

33

Left

43

28

25

AAP

-

-

2

Others

6

6

7

 

Satisfaction with TMC govt in West Bengal has risen since July 2013

Satisfaction with performance of the

Trinamool Congress govt in

West Bengal

Overall

 

2013

2014

Satisfied

50

55

Dissatisfied

42

34

Can’t say

8

11

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 1264; Sample size in 2013 was 1397.

 

Six out of ten respondents satisfied with Mamata Banerjee’s performance as chief minister

Satisfaction with performance of the

Mamata Banerjee as CM of West Bengal

Overall

Satisfied

60

Dissatisfied

31

Can’t say

9

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in January 2014.

3. Sample size is 1264.

 

Anti-state government sentiment in West Bengal seems to have decreased in last six months

Should the Trinamool Congress

govt in West Bengal get

another chance?

Overall

 

2013

2014

Yes

43

44

No

35

30

Can’t say

22

26

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 1264; Sample size in 2013 was 1397.

 

 shifts from being pro-UPA six months ago to anti-UPA now

Should the UPA government get another chance after the 2014 Lok Sabha election?

Opinion in West Bengal

 

2013

2014

Yes

40

29

No

29

36

Can’t say

31

35

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 1264; Sample size in 2013 was 1397.

 

PM choice – Modi overtakes Rahul in West Bengal, popularity doubles; ahead of Rahul+Sonia+Manmohan combined

Prime Minister choice in

West Bengal

Overall

 

2013

2014

Narendra Modi

9

18

Rahul Gandhi

12

9

Sonia Gandhi

4

3

Manmohan Singh

11

5

Mamata Banerjee

9

11

Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee

3

3

Others

6

1

Can’t say

46

50

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in West Bengal in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 1264; Sample size in 2013 was 1397.



Tags:

     Next

Which way will WB, Odisha and Bihar go if LS polls are held today

Prev     Next
Prev

Next

ODISHA

VOTE SHARE

 

UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JANUARY 2014 – Negligible

Party

2009 Actual

July 2013

Estimated Vote*

January 2014

Estimated Vote

BJD

37

-

33

INC

33

-

31

BJP

17

-

25

AAP

-

-

1

Others

13

-

10

 

BJD government still highly popular but satisfaction with its performance has declined somewhat in last six months

Satisfaction with performance of the

State BJD govt

Overall

 

2013

2014

Satisfied

79

67

Dissatisfied

20

29

Can’t say

1

4

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Odisha in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 978; Sample size in 2013 was 627

 

Naveen Patnaik even more popular than his government

Satisfaction with performance of the

Naveen Patnaik as CM of Odisha

Overall

Satisfied

70

Dissatisfied

26

Can’t say

3

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Odisha in January 2014.

3. Sample size is 978

 

Anti-BJD government mood has increased since last survey in July 2013

Should the BJD govt in Odisha

get another chance?

Overall

 

2013

2014

Yes

66

51

No

29

35

Can’t say

5

14

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Odisha in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 978; Sample size in 2013 was 627

 


Image: Biju Janata Dal leader Jay Panda in Palimi village, Odisha


Prev     Next

Which way will WB, Odisha and Bihar go if LS polls are held today

Prev     Next
Prev

Next

BIHAR

VOTE SHARE

UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JULY 2013 - 3%

UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JANUARY 2014 - 2%

Party

2009 Actual

July 2013 Estimated Vote

January 2014

Estimated Vote

INC

10

10

11

BJP

14

22

39

JDU

24

25

20

RJD

19

24

15

LJP

7

3

2

AAP

-

-

3

Others

26

16

10

 

JDU government’s performance still rated mostly positively but is down compared to last July

Satisfaction with performance

of the State JDU govt

Overall

 

2013

2014

Satisfied

69

59

Dissatisfied

25

38

Can’t say

6

3

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 1317; Sample size in 2013 was 1735

 

Nitish Kumar’s performance as CM rated better than his government’s performance

Satisfaction with performance of the

Nitish Kumar as CM of Bihar

Overall

Satisfied

63

Dissatisfied

36

Can’t say

1

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in January 2014.

3. Sample size is 1317

 

 state government’s popularity still as high as it was last July

Should the JDU govt in Bihar get

another chance?

Overall

 

2013

2014

Yes

54

55

No

35

38

Can’t say

11

7

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January 2014.

3. Sample size in 2014 is 1317; Sample size in 2013 was 1735

 

Most say Nitish govt. to blame for security lapse during Modi rally, including many Muslims

Opinion on blasts during Modi’s Patna rally

(responses of only those who are aware of the blasts)

Overall

Upper

caste

Yadav

Kurmi

Lower OBC

Dalit

Muslim

Nitish govt to blame for security lapse

51

62

55

30

51

57

47

Nitish govt not to blame, such things are impossible to check

33

29

26

54

37

29

33

Can’t say

16

9

19

16

12

14

20

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in January 2014.

3. Sample size for overall is 1086

 

Lalu got adequate punishment in fodder scam case say most

Opinion on Lalu’s punishment

in fodder scam case

Overall

Muslims

Yadavs

Traditional RJD

supporters

Too harsh

19

26

35

40

Adequate

46

42

40

42

Too little

19

16

11

1

Can’t say

16

17

14

17

Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.

2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in January 2014.

3. Sample size for overall is 1317


Image: Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar


Prev     Next

Which way will WB, Odisha and Bihar go if LS polls are held today

Prev     Next
Prev

Next

AAP FACTOR

Awareness of AAP across the 18 states where the Tracker poll was conducted

 

Heard of AAP?

 

%

National (18 states)

 

54

 

Delhi

97

Haryana

79

Madhya Pradesh

73

Kerala

67

Maharashtra

66

Punjab

65

Uttar Pradesh

65

Jharkhand

63

Rajasthan

61

Gujarat

58

Chhattisgarh

55

Bihar

50

Karnataka

49

Tamil Nadu

47

Odisha

46

Assam

35

West Bengal

35

Andhra Pradesh

33

 

Region wise vote share of AAP

AAP’s key voters

%

AAP vote nationally (18 states)

4

North India

9

West India

5

Central India

2

South India

1

East India

1

 

Vote share of AAP across states

States where AAP is getting 4% and above votes

AAP

voteshare

(%)

From Cong

(%)

From BJP

(%)

From Others

(%)

Delhi

48.0

15.3

10.5

22.2

Haryana

17.0

9.4

1.8

5.8

Punjab

14.0

1.0

1.8

11.2

Gujarat

7.0

0.9

2.1

4.0

Kerala

5.0

0.2

0.0

4.8

Uttar Pradesh

5.0

0.3

0.6

4.1

Jharkhand

5.0

0.7

0.7

3.6

Maharashtra

4.0

1.1

0.3

3.6

Rajasthan

4.0

0.0

0.0

4.0

 

Vote shift towards AAP from other parties nationally (18 states)

AAP taking away votes..

%

From Congress

0.7

From BJP

0.5

From Others

2.8

Total

4.0

 

Kejriwal as PM preference across the 18 states where the Tracker poll was conducted

Preference for Kejriwal as PM

%

National (18 states)

 

3

 

Delhi

34

Punjab

12

Haryana

10

Gujarat

5

Jharkhand

5

Rajasthan

4

Maharashtra

4

Uttar Pradesh

4

Bihar

3

Chhattisgarh

3

Madhya Pradesh

3

Karnataka

2

Kerala

2

Odisha

1

Andhra Pradesh

1

Assam

0

West Bengal

0

Tamil Nadu

0

 

Overall Methodology

  • The findings are based on a survey conducted in 18 states, carried out by  Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies between January 5 and January 15. 
  • 18,951 voters were surveyed across 1081 locations of 291 Parliamentary constituencies. 
  • Women comprise 44.2% of the sample. 19.2% consists of Scheduled Caste respondents and 7.4% is made up of Adivasis.
  • Muslims constitute 11.6% of the sample...24.5% are from urban areas.

 

Sample profile for Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal and Assam

States

Total sample

size in survey

Women

Muslim*

Urban

SC

ST

Census

Survey

Census

 

Survey

Census

 

Survey

Census

 

Survey

Census

 

Survey

Bihar

1317

47.8

42.8

16.5

15.3

11.2

7.1

15.9

19.1

1.3

0.9

Jharkhand

972

48.6

41.5

13.8

15.3

24.0

15.6

12.0

16.6

26.2

14.9

Odisha

978

49.4

44.8

2.1

4.2

16.0

7.5

17.1

25.9

22.8

7.8

West Bengal

1264

48.7

48.7

25.2

25.2

31.8

11.9

23.5

29.5

5.8

7.5

Assam

462

48.9

42.3

30.9

15.8

15.3

5.9

7.1

15.0

12.4

26.0

Note: Census figures for women, urban, SCs and STs are from Census 2011; *Census figures for Muslims are from Census 2001




Prev     Next

TOP photo features you missed last week

Prev     More

Click on MORE to see another PHOTO features...



Tags: 1

Prev     More