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If LS polls are held today: BJP poised to cross 220 seats

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is poised to cross 220 seats, well ahead of the United Progressive Alliance and within striking distance of forming a government in 2014 if elections are held today.

The big national projection of the CNN-IBN Lokniti election tracker conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.

The Congress could be heading for its worst ever performance – with the UPA unlikely to cross 125 seats, according to the poll.

Regional parties such as the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress and Jayalalithaa-led All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam could still be the key to government formation.

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The National picture

• The BJP may get 34 per cent vote share if Lok Sabha polls are held today, a 15.2 per cent jump since 2009 polls
• The Congress may get 27 per cent vote share if Lok Sabha polls are held today, a 1.6 per cent decline since 2009 polls
• If the LS polls are held today, the Congress and current UPA allies will get 28 per cent vote share; down 3.5 per cent from 2009
• If LS polls are held today, the BJP & current NDA allies will get 36 per cent vote share; up by 14.5 per cent since 2009
• CNN IBN’s July 2013 tracker had estimated both the UPA and the NDA vote shares at 29 per cent for each combine
• Non-UPA, non-NDA parties may get 36 per cent votes if LS polls are held today; a 11 per cent decline since 2009

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Leadership

• Narendra Modi widens his lead over Rahul Gandhi as choice for preferred PM
• Thirty-four per cent say they prefer Modi as PM; in 2013 Election tracker, Modi had 19 per cent approval
• Fifteen per cent respondents across India say they would prefer Rahul Gandhi as prime minister
• Sonia Gandhi is third on preferred PM ratings at 5 per cent; Kejriwal opens account with 3 per cent
• In a direct face-off between Modi and Rahul, 42 per cent prefer Modi, only 25 per cent choose Rahul as PM
• Modi’s biggest lead is amongst voters between 18 and 25 years; clocks 48 per cent against 25 per cent for Rahul
• Forty-nine per cent respondents across India say the BJP’s decision to name Modi as PM candidate was correct
• Fifty-nine per cent in north say BJP naming Modi as PM candidate was correct; 31 per cent in south say it was correct
• If Modi isn’t accepted as a post-results NDA coalition leader, 22 per cent prefer Advani as PM choice
• Arvind Kejriwal leads with 9 per cent as preferred PM in a non-BJP, non-Cong coalition government

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