Possible monsoon shortfall predicted

According to the India Meteorological Department, there will be a shortfall in monsoon this year, adversely affecting agricultural production. However, the Centre has no plans of 'invoking artificial rain', said Kapil Sibal, Minister for Science and Technology said on Monday.

The IMD's operational long-range forecast for the 2006 south-west monsoon season (June-September) was that rainfall over the country as a whole 'is likely to be 93 percent of the long period average with a model error of plus/minus five percent', he said. 

Sibal said estimates also suggested 22 percent probability of the SW monsoons to be deficient (below 90 percent of LPA).

The minister added that about 40 percent areas under crops were irrigated while 60 percent depended on rains and shortfalls would 'adversely affect' agriculture production.

"It is, however, too early to say which states will be affected and how far the price of agricultural products would be affected as spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rainfall over different regions of the country cannot be predicted with the existing infrastructure of IMD," he said.