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Post-poll survey: Congress to suffer massive loss in Delhi

December 06, 2013 21:41 IST

The CNN IBN- The Week post poll survey suggest that the satisfaction levels with the Sheila Dikshit government has dropped by 26 per cent from 2008 mark of 66 per cent. Only 40 per cent respondents say they are satisfied with the Delhi government’s performance in last the 5 years. 54 per cent respondents say they are not satisfied with Sheila Dikshit as Delhi chief minister.

70 per cent respondents in say the Sheila Dikshit government does not deserve another chance at governing Delhi, while only 23 per cent respondents want the government to get another chance at governing Delhi

Sheila Dikshit’s personal popularity has touched its lowest since 2003. She gets only 15 per cent approval. The chief minster’s popularity ratings in 2008 touched 34 per cent; it climbed to 41 per cent in 2009.

According to the post poll survey, Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal is emerging as the most preferred choice for chief minister of Delhi. 27 per cent prefer Kejriwal as CM; BJP’s Harsh Vardhan gets 22 per cent approval, while Sheila is third at 15 per cent.

CNN IBN-The Week post-poll projects Sheila may lose New Delhi seat to Arvind Kejriwal. 38 per cent respondents in New Delhi seat say they want Kejriwal as CM; only 13 per cent want Sheila back.

The post-poll projections suggest Sheila may be paying a price of high unpopularity of Central Govt as 63 per cent Delhi respondents say they are dissatisfied with the Cong-led UPA government at the Centre

 

Seat Projection

                         2013            2008

CONG               9 - 17             (43)

BJP                  32-42              (23)

AAP                 13-21               (0)

OTHERS            1-5                  (4)

 

Vote Share

 

                     2008     2013   Change

BJP+              36.3       33        - 3.3

AAP                --           27        + 27

INC                40.3       23        - 17.3

BSP                14.0      08        - 6

Others             9.4       09        - 1

 

 

Major findings of the survey

 

Estimated Votes for Assembly 2013: BJP leads, AAP an impressive second, Cong collapses

 

Party

2008

(Actual)

Pre Poll Survey

2013 (Estimate)

Post Poll Survey

2013 (Estimate)

Estimated Change

since 2008

BJP+

36.3

29

33

-3

AAP

-

28

27

+27

INC

40.3

27

23

-17

BSP

14.0

7

8

-6

Others

9.4

9

9

-1

 

Note: All figures are in percent; Weighted data; BJP+ means BJP and SAD.

 

Main reasons given by BJP, Cong and AAP voters for voting for the party

 

Main reasons for voting for party/candidate

BJP+

voters

Cong

voters

AAP

voters

I generally like the party/it has good leadership/good programme

18

26

18

Party is capable of controlling price rise

13

4

12

I like the candidate fielded by the party/accessible candidate/good personality

9

11

8

I want change

9

4

17

My family members are traditional

supporters of the party/have benefitted from it

8

15

3

Party is capable of controlling corruption

4

1

10

Caste considerations in favour of party/candidate

3

2

1

I am dissatisfied with the Cong govt./CM

3

1

2

I like Narendra Modi

3

0

0

I am satisfied with the Cong govt and CM

1

6

0

I like Kejriwal

0

0

3

 

Note: All figures are in percent; the rest gave other reasons or had no opinion;

Weighted Data; Sample size for BJP voters in this question is 616; Sample size for Cong voters in this question is 427; Sample size for AAP voters in this question is 491.

 

Kejriwal most preferred choice for CM but Harshvardhan biggest gainer in last one month

Chief Minister preference

(open ended question)

Pre Poll

Oct 2013

Post Poll

Dec 2013

Arvind Kejriwal

25

27

Harshvardhan

2

22

Sheila Dikshit

16

15

Others

29

14

Can’t say

28

22

Note: All figures are in percent; Sample size for Pre Poll Survey was 2507; Sample for Post Poll survey is 2263. Weighted data.