Ruling National Democratic Allaince is gearing up for a fight to the finish with rivals -- Rashtriya Janata Dal-Lok Janshakti Party combine and Congress -- in 45 assembly constituencies spread over several districts, once considered as RJD pocket boroughs, that go to polls in the second phase on October 24.
Altogether 623 candidates are in the fray in the 45 assembly constituencies in a multi-cornered contest of which Tirhut, Mithilanchal regions, parts of Muzaffarpur and Motihari and the entire Darbhanga and Samastipur are known to be pockets of strength for Opposition RJD.
The Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party are contesting all the seats, while the ruling Janata Dal-United is fighting in 28 and ally Bharatiya Janata Party in 17.
The RJD is in the fray in 34 assembly constituencies, while LJP candidates are trying their luck in 11. Communist Party of India-M and CPI have put up eight candidates each, while CPI-ML (Liberation) is contesting in 11 seats.
The political stalwarts whose fate will be decided in the second phase poll include state RJD chief Abdul Bari Siddiqui (Alinagar), his JD(U) counterpart Vijay Kumar Choudhary (Sarairanjan), Ministers Ramnath Thakur (Samastipur) and Shahid Ali Khan (Sursand).
Besides LJP supremo Ram Vilas Paswan's brother and former MP Ramchandra Paswan will be crossing swords with CLP leader Ashok Kumar in Kusheshwa Asthan.
RJD chief whip in the assembly and former minister Ramchandra Purve is contesting from Parihar while former Union Minister M A A Fatmi's son Fraz Fatmi is in the fray from Kevati.
The area was the stronghold of RJD during 1995-2000 when party supremo Lalu Prasad seemed to have good influence among entire OBC-EBC minority caste and swept to a three-fourths majority in Bihar assembly.
Even in the February and October 2005 polls, the percentage of votes of the RJD-LJP was higher to the NDA despite a dip in RJD's votes by 10 per cent compared to February 2005.
The assembly poll in October, 2005 clearly demonstrated an upsurge in favour of the NDA against the backdrop of law and order situation in September following the Golu kidnapping case in Patna, which had also prompted Atal Behari Vajpayee to appeal for his safe release.
The brief spell of President's rule under Buta Singh administration after Rabri's prolonged stay in office had not gone down well either and the result was marginal rise in sympathy and consequent voter turnout for the NDA.
This resulted in percentages of RJD-LJD, who fought separately, to go down, but just so. While the Congress had won just one out of the eight seats contested by the grand old party, the RJD romped to victory in 22 of the seats on offer in February 2005.
But subsequently, its tally plummeted to 19 in the October 2005 mid-term poll with a huge drop in its poll percentage. Similarly, the NDA's tally rose its tally to 23 in October from 17 seats in February 2005, while the LJP's tally was halved from eight in February to just four in October 2005.
NDA hopes for a better showing and further increasing its strength in this area riding high on the crest of development plank. Though infrastructure, law and order situation are advantage factors for NDA, the OBC-EBC votes are also crucial along with the minority core playing decisive role.
With Prasad's social justice plank in tatters, and Ram Vilas Paswan's dalits having been wooed by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, known as an architect of social engineering, it would be an interesting call anyway.
The high number of dissidents who will challenge all parties and the delimitation blues would further make prediction of results in this area a very difficult proposition.
Snapping ties with Cong Lalu's 'biggest mistake': Raghuvansh
Meanwhile, senior RJD leader Raghuvansh Prasad Singh has criticised party chief Lalu Prasad's decision to snap ties with Congress, terming the move as the 'biggest mistake,' and questioned conceding 75 seats to LJP for the upcoming Bihar assembly polls.
Singh, a former Union minister who is considered a long- time associate of the RJD chief, said he has 'difference of opinion' with Lalu Prasad on a number of issues but would remain with him.
"The biggest of all the mistakes committed by Lalu Prasad was snapping ties with Congress during last Lok Sabha poll," he told PTI in New Delhi.
He did not elaborate but was apparently hinting at the possible adverse impact that decision would have on RJD's prospects in the upcoming polls in Bihar.
RJD and Congress had an alliance since 2000 and ran a coalition government in Bihar from 2000 to 2005. RJD was also a key ally in the UPA-I government. However, their ties soured ahead of the 2009 Lok Sabha polls and the two parties are now pitted against each other in the Bihar assembly elections, which many feel would hurt both.
