Leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh are wondering if the party-led government in Karnataka will opt for the dissolution of the state assembly in the wake of the political turmoil unleashed by the renegade B S Yeddyurappa.
The former chief minister may manage to garner the support of 30 Members of Legislative Assembly during the launch of his Karnataka Janata Party on December 9.
"It makes no sense for the government to continue if Yeddyurappa gets the support of over 30 legislators during his party launch. Both the RSS and BJP top brasses feel that in case of such an eventuality, it will be best if the assembly is dissolved to show that the party has some semblance of honour and discipline," a BJP legislator told rediff.com.
Yeddyurappa has decided to leave the BJP by the end of November.
Nearly 50 leaders of the state BJP unit attended a luncheon meeting recently hosted by him, worrying the stakeholders of the ruling party.
State BJP leaders, who have discussed the issue with senior leaders of the party and the RSS, felt that this was the best way to dissuade loyalists from joining Yeddyurappa. They are aware of the fact that no BJP legislator will want an early election as all of them want to complete their term.
Yeddyurappa will also not be too eager about an early election as he needs time to build the party and strengthen its foundation.
According to BJP leaders close to Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar, the party top brass is not expecting a major exodus.
While Yeddyurappa expects over 30 Members of Legislative Assembly to join him on December 9 during his rally in Haveri, the ruling BJP is hopeful that no more than 10 MLAs would dare to openly defect.
Incidentally, most of Yeddyurappa's loyalists want him to work out his differences with the BJP. They are reluctant to slog it out in a new party as they feel that their chances of being re-elected are very bleak. They do not want to gamble away their chances of winning in the ego-tussle going on between Yeddyurappa and senior BJP leaders.
They want an amicable resolution of the issue and a respectable post for the former CM within the party.
But the chances of Yeddyurappa reconciling with the BJP, especially after spewing venom against the party and its leaders time and again, are rare.
Hectic preparations are going on for the launch of the new party by Yeddyurappa. He has been holding talks with his loyalists and members of other parties (mainly from the Congress). He has decided that his new party will be a 'secular' one and will provide another alternative to the BJP in Karnataka.