Al Qaeda could soon be on the decline even as it remains a major threat with a strong presence in the tribal areas of Pakistan, a report by American intelligence agencies said.
A new study of the global future by US intelligence agencies suggests that the group 'may decay sooner' than many experts have assumed because of severe weaknesses like 'unachievable strategic objectives, inability to attract broad-based support and self-destructive actions', the New York Times reported.
According to the Times, the report does not contradict intelligence assessments suggesting that Al Qaeda remains a major threat with a strong presence in the tribal areas of Pakistan, but says that the terrorist group has alienated Muslim supporters with indiscriminate killing and inattention to practical problems of poverty, unemployment and education.
'The appeal of terrorism is waning,' Mathew J Burrows, head of long-range analysis in the office of the director of national intelligence and a lead author of Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, was quoted as saying by the Times.
Burrows said polls and anecdotal evidence strongly suggested disillusionment among Muslims with Al Qaeda and its methods and goals since the 2001 terrorist attacks.
Even if Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups gradually lose support, the remaining violent extremists may have access to increasingly lethal technology, including biological weapons, the report found.
The predicted decline of Al Qaeda, the New York Times says, is one of the few bright spots in the generally gloomy report, which describes a decline in the United States' world dominance as China, India and other powers assert themselves.
'Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States' relative strength, even in the military realm, will decline and US leverage will become more constrained,' the report said.
By 2025, it predicted, 'the US will find itself as one of a number of important actors on the world stage, playing a prominent role in global events' but not a decisive one as in the past'.
The new report, the Times says, describes a world driven by increased conflict over scarce food and water supplies and threatened by so-called rogue states and terrorists, widening gaps between rich and poor and an uneven impact of global warming.
It said the chance of the use of nuclear weapons, while remaining 'very low', will rise in the next two decades as nuclear technology spreads. The report also said that Russia's emergence as a world power was 'clouded' by persistent corruption and lagging investment in its critical energy industry.
Fingar, the Times said, acknowledged that the report, in the works for months, did not fully reflect the severity of the global economic crisis. But he said intelligence officials chose not to delay the report, judging that the long-term impact of the economic downturn would not be clear for months.
The Global Trends reports are produced every four years by the National Intelligence Council, which represents all 16 American intelligence agencies, in part to inform long-term thinking by new administrations.
