Commentary/Saisuresh Sivaswamy

The Sonia factor has ruined Kesri's peace

Just a little over a month ago, he was lord of all he surveyed in India's oldest political party. Not only had he silenced all critics within the Congress party, but Congress president Sitaram Kesri had also shown the United Front government that when it came to the crunch he held all the cards. There was no reason for him, then, to fear any challenge to his leadership when the party's internal elections would be held shortly.

All that was needed to change his script was the decision by a widow to make public that she has joined the party as a primary member, and for the ground to be cut from under Kesri's feet. The position Sonia Gandhi had announced, primary membership, does not entitle her to hold party posts, for which she would have to become an active member, but to Congressmen despairing of the future even this has come as manna from heaven, much to Kesri's discomfiture.

Would the various state units of the party be in the state of turmoil that they are in today if Sonia had not stepped out of the shadows? Unlikely, for Congressmen are not known to rock the boat they are sailing in, however leaky the vessel may be, unless they are sure of an alternative option. And Sonia's decision provides them with that alternative.

Now that she has entered politics, does Sonia intend to take over the party? Or does she intend to sit it out, just as her mother-in-law did once upon a time before taking the final plunge? The answers to these depend on whether her intention is to salvage her late husband's reputation that would be torn asunder with the Central Bureau of Investigation deciding to name him as one of the accused in the Bofors scandal, or to salvage the party's reputation.

It is obvious that there is no earthly reason why she should be concerned with the well-being of a political party, the leadership of which had first cost her mother-in-law and then her husband their lives? Given that blood-soaked record, Sonia Gandhi would be a fool to play footsie with politics, however inviting the thought of heading the world's largest democracy.

No, it is obvious that her interest in the Congress is limited. To the extent of preventing any mud being thrown on her husband. Is it a matter of sheer coincidence that she announced her decision to join the Congress only days before the CBI disclosed its intention of chargesheeting Rajiv Gandhi among others in the Bofors case? I would take the line that there is more to it than a belated realisation on her part that there is no life beyond the Congress party.

The impact of her decision on Kesri's own future, Sonia Gandhi very well had a clear idea of. She also knew that the invertebrate Congressmen would soon clamour for her to take over the party as president and in case it wins the next elections, to become the next prime minister. Regardless of whether our Constitution allows naturalised Indians to become prime minister -- the American Constitution, for instance, does not permit a naturalised citizen to become President -- she would not take over that post, knowing well the ructions it would set off within a society that is already divided. No, her interest is not long-term, but very short-term.

Which is to see that her husband is not unduly defamed, especially because he is not around to defend himself against calumny.

And, in this decision, Kesri seems to have played himself into her hands by shaking to its core the H D Deve Gowda administration. Because, when he caused the ouster of the head of the government on a mere whim, he sent the intended message to not only the United Front and rebellious Congressmen, but an unintended one to 10 Janpath as well.

Knowing the CBI's intentions in the Bofors case, Sonia must have been casting about for a way out, when up came Kesri with his foolhardiness. Sonia's calculation is clear: unsettle Kesri, let him know that his job is on the line, not overtly but subtly, and get him to do the needful from a newly supine United Front government.

The very fact that she has become only a primary and not an active member of the Congress party is a signal, the recipient of which can only be Sitaram Kesri. If Sonia was indeed keen on taking over the party et cetera, she would have done so by right. That may be the next step, if the AICC president does not play ball, but it is evident that a man who has clamoured for the top post all his life is not going to spoil it all by sticking to principles, not at least in politics. That Kesri knows what is expected of him is clear from the tough talking he was already done on the Bofors issue with the prime minister.

A seasoned politician like I K Gujral, too, knows the stakes involved here, for the Deve Gowda episode is too recent to be forgotten. At the same time, both he and Kesri know that there is little they could do in the matter of the CBI's investigations. All they can ensure -- and even that has a big question mark over it -- is that the CBI does not come out with premature disclosures in the media, something for which the investigating agency seems to have taken a shine to of late. Beyond that, influencing the agency to go slow on the Rajiv Gandhi angle is something that is far more explosive and could earn for the government the wrath of the courts. Will Sonia Gandhi be content with this limited appeasement?

As with everything pertaining to 10 Janpath, there is very little indication of what is on her mind. My guesstimate is that she will hold her hand till the final list of the recipients's names comes to the country from abroad, which is anytime now. Her future course of action would depend on if and how deeply the family gets implicated in the matter. While for Kesri, keen on formalising his control over the party, it is like a time-bomb ticking away.

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