Commentary/ Saisuresh Sivaswamy

Sonia's entry into politics spells early elections

Thankfully, one of the most enduring mysteries of contemporary Indian politics has been answered with the announcement that Rajiv Gandhi's widow Sonia Gandhi has become a primary member of the Congress party.

But as always, the declaration has left a few other related questions in its wake. Like, will Sitaram Kesri yield his primacy within the party - which is being challenged quite seriously - to her? Does this mean the end of the road for the young (comparatively, that is) and ambitious leaders in the party like Sharad Pawar, Rajesh Pilot, Arjun Singh and Madhavrao Scindia? And finally, will Sonia Gandhi clarify things a little more by telling us if she plans to take over the party formally?

Answers to the earlier questions should be known in a little while, but the last, one is afraid, will not be answered in a hurry. Not because Sonia Gandhi does not know the answer herself, but if she learnt anything in these six years that she did a fade in fade out on Indian politics, it must be the pricelessness of Garboesque mystique. Better to keep 'em guessing, was her motto then as it will be now. The fear is that she may continue in this manner even after becoming party president and being voted into office by the masses - habits die hard, you see - and instead of the PIB's formal announcements of official decisions, we may end up with a nudge-nudge wink-wink raj.

Ironically, more than the Opposition - the reference here being to all the constituents of the United Front, the Left Front and the Bharatiya Janata Party - it appears that senior Congress leaders are more rattled by Sonia Gandhi's decision to jump into active politics. Not very surprising, perhaps, since it is these leaders who will have to suppress their own individual ambitions and accept her as the leader.

The question here is not whether she knows the party, the country, its politics etc. but that within the Congress there is no single vote-catcher, which explains why the party has been routed in state after state, election after election. The present leadership within the party may pride itself on its experience, the fact that it took part in the freedom struggle etc, but when it comes to exchanging these for votes they are a miserable failure. No wonder the party rank and file is delighted at the turn of events.

According to the official announcement last week in New Delhi, Sonia Gandhi actually joined the party on March 24, although the news was released more than a month later. That is very interesting, especially considering that barely a week after her becoming a primary member of the party, Congress president Sitaram Kesri withdrew support to the United Front government unilaterally.

Was his action a panic reaction to her decision?

Or, was it taken after due consultation with her?

And, finally, why did she take the step at this juncture?

The whole gamut of Congress politics has undergone a sea-change after Sonia Gandhi's decision. And no one is more affected than Kesri, who may now find her becoming an alternative power centre. Who knows, he may well be for some surprises in the party's forthcoming organisational elections. His decision to withdraw support may well have been triggered off by her, not just to show that he was in control of the party, but like the legendary Samson he may have tried to bring the house down. His calculation being that the resultant mess would dissuade her from going ahead with her plans.

The other scenario that she was in the know before Kesri pulled the rug from under H D Deve Gowda's feet. Considering the umbilical links between her and the party, this is very likely, the calculation being to show the United Front its place so demotivate its cadres, bringing her upfront to motivate the Congress's own rank and file. And, possibly, the Central Bureau of investigation's premature announcement implicating Laloo Prasad Yadav isn't as fortuitous as it is made out to be.

Or, the final scenario is that the CBI may have a greater role in her decision, albeit indirectly. Specially, its announcement that the Bofors investigations have almost reached their conclusion, and that official sanction may be sought for prosecuting ex-bureaucrats and the like. While it is inconceivable that her husband will figure as one of the accused, this is a case that has thrown considerable suspicion on the family, resulting even in Rajiv Gandhi's electoral defeat. If public suspicion of his involvement in the affair - which can be more damning than any chargesheet the agency may file - refuses to go away with the CBI move, Sonia Gandhi may have decided to turn to the people's court, and her decision to join the Congress is merely the first step in this direction.

Again, one has only silence from the Sphinx.

From the Congressman's point of view, however, her entry can only be beneficial to the party, even if that enthusiasm is a little premature. For it is a long way off before we get to see if she has the same vote-catching ability of the family she married into. And, quite frankly, if it is merely the name and the blood ties that do it, then our prime minister should be a woman who goes under the name of Maneka Gandhi and who conducts animal shows on a foreign channel.

But Sonia Gandhi's timing is right. The UF is reconciled to playing second fiddle to the Congress, and its main draw, a gentleman by the name of Laloo Prasad Yadav, is busy battling demons, real and imaginary, and hence in no position to bring in votes by the bushel.

The Tamil Maanila Congress, which was in a pique till recently, will welcome Sonia Gandhi with open arms, which will further enthuse the Congress's own workers. All of which, of course, points in only one direction. And that is in the direction of a mid-term poll, possibly by the end of this year or early next year. And takers?

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