Commentary/Saisuresh Sivaswamy

Kesri won the AICC president post on April 11 itself

There are some people who simply refuse to wake up to ground realities. And increasingly, Abdul Rehman Antulay, an astute politician hitherto, is showing symptoms of being afflicted with this disorder.

Otherwise, there is no compelling reason for him to take on Sitaram Kesri, especially since March 30, the day the latter decided to withdraw support to the H D Deve Gowda government. And, Antulay could not have chosen a more inopportune time to oppose the Congress president. For, despite the lead writers across the nation panning him for the decision to withdraw support, in the final analysis it was the United Front that kowtowed before him, and not vice versa, by changing the prime minister.

The mood in the Congress party may be sullen, downcast following this exercise, but that has got more to do with what Congressmen call public opinion which they fear has turned against them, and less to do with Chacha Kesri's timing or decision. In private, Congressmen themselves question the wisdom of extending unconditional support to an administration that has shown little sympathy or concern for their party, but the stance for public consumption has been entirely different.

And, it is the public posturing -- Kesri did not consult us and therefore we are not to blame for the mess - that Antulay seems to have been taken in by.

Does he really expect a shrewd politician like Sharad Pawar to heed his call and challenge Kesri for the AICC presidentship? Even if Pawar did harbour such thoughts -- given his ambition, it would be surprising if he did not -- he would hardly look to Antulay for publicity or press relations. Given this, no one, least of all Kesri, would take Antulay's periodic outbursts seriously. And if the latter continues in this vein, he would be the first to be shown the door as and when general elections are held.

But it is interesting to see that Kesri has not so far taken any action against the rookie Congressman from Maharashtra, a sharp contrast to traditional Congress style in which mere murmurs of discontent have been enough cause for one to cease to belong to that party. Kesri, in all probability, would proceed against Antulay once his own election as AICC president is ratified by that body in the next couple of months, since currently even his provisional appointment as party president is under a cloud.

But it s now obvious that all his manouevrings to remove Deve Gowda as prime minister had little to do with what the latter's successor termed witch-hunting, or with the general declining in law and order situation across the country or even allowing the Bharatiya Janata Party to sneak to power in Uttar Pradesh

One single line of reasoning dominated his decision to subject the country to some anxious moments. And that was the forthcoming party elections, which are mandatory following the Election Commission's insistence

Kesri knew that his earlier appointment was only a provisional one, and even that was secured in the face of stiff opposition from Sharad Pawar, who was all set to throw his hat in the ring. Kesri also knows that the younger members of Parliament in his party are in a restive mood, and now that the Bharatiya Janata Party has manouevred its way into power in Lucknow the knives would certainly be out for him this month during the internal elections. There was no way Pawar or the other challenger, Rajesh Pilot, would keep quiet then, and Kesri had to do some quick thinking

Only the thing could stave off that possibility, and that was brinkmanship of the most hazardous kind. Ergo, the sudden decision to pull the rug from out under Gowda's feet.

The timing too was calculated in such a way as to cause the incumbent the maximum embarrassment.

To be fair to Kesri, he obviously did not expect Gowda to defy him; all his calculations were based on the assumption that the latter would step down once it became clear that he had lost the confidence of the Lok Sabha, but when Gowda made it clear that he was in mood to oblige and was all prepared to go down fighting, Kesri had no option but to see his hand through - and that could be achieved only by defeating the United Front before the trust vote, to replace Gowda, which was turned down only because Gowda refused to play ball.

Notice too, Kesri's subsequent crowing to all and sundry that he has shown to the world that it was the Congress party that actually called the shots in the government. Which, if one considers how the United Front was sought to accommodate the Congress party after April 11, is not wide of the mark.

Naturally, he expects to go into war as a hero who has put the government in its place, who has shown that when it came to the crunch he calls the shots in the government, and let his opponents better that record!

It is going to be a tough act to match, which could also explain Pawar's strange silence since then. It would be illuminating to find out what thoughts are coursing through the Maratha's mind, but defiance is not likely to be foremost among them

In the meantime, however, it is useful to have someone like Antulay keep his name in circulation, for the longer it continues the greater the impression that if anyone can succeed to the AICC president's post it is only he. Which again explains his silence and refusal to muzzle Antulay. Of course, between now and when the AICC elections are to be held is a clear two month gap. If a week is a long time in politics, his period could well an aeon, during which anything could happen. And being a seasoned campaigner, Sharad Pawar knows well the value of silence, and the virtue of waiting for one's time to come. And not being imbued with similar ambition, Antulay can be excused his lack of knowledge of these things.

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