Commentary/Saisuresh Sivaswamy

The BJP's focus is long-term. Often, it does not mind conceding the battle so long as it is able to win the war

It is a truism that Uttar Pradesh dictates the course of Indian politics.

Just as who wins UP gets to rule India, the obverse is equally true. Who loses Uttar Pradesh more often than not ends up losing India as well.

In 1977, the Janata Party wave all but swept Indira Gandhi south in the Vindhyas, which region alone stood by her. But at that point in time at least, the south had not reached the superior status it had reached today in deciding upon the nation's destiny, and the Janata government could assume office.

The Congress's decline in fortunes began with its demise in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, two of India's most populous states. One politician who realised the importance the Hindi belt played in India's polity was Vishwanath Pratap Singh, who focused single-mindedly on UP and Bihar in the countdown to the 1989 election. In the process he also wrote the political obituary of the Congress party.

The 1991 election was a bit of an aberration, in the sense that although the Congress fared badly in UP and Bihar, it emerged as the single largrest party thanks to a late sympathy wave in the southern regions, and P V Narasimha Rao could cobble together a simple majority with the help of friendly political parties.

Last year's election again failed to give the Bharatiya Janata Party the decisive edge in the numbers game essentially because its base in UP had been splintered among the various political parties, and it could not muster as many seats from this belt. Yes, things would have been very very different had the BJP fought the elections in league with, and not in opposition to, the Bahujan Samaj Party.

For those intrigued at two diametrically opposed political parties -- one representing the interests of the upper classes despite its pan-religious hue and the other fighting for the amelioration of the backward classes from the tyranny of the upper classes -- who had once before tried and failed to work together forging forces yet again, a small rider: Politics is essentially about winning, and then retaining, power. Once one keeps this firmly in mind, the behaviour and misbehaviour of political parties can easily be digested.

And for those who bemoan the BJP eating crow -- after all it is the single largest party and yet has to concede the first shot at the chief ministership to Mayawati -- another small rider: Do not underestimate the BJP. Its focus is long-term, and often it does not mind conceding the battle so long as it is able to win the war.

Almost nine years ago, I think, the then Illustrated Weekly of India had run a cover story on the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the umbrella organisation of the right-wing forces and often described with the prefix Hindu nationalist by foreign television channels, as the new untouchables. The RSS's political offshoot, the BJP still remains an untouchable , yes, but not only has it retained its majesty in solitude, it has also managed to get the party of the untouchables, the BSP, to associate with it.

Are the terms bad for the BJP?

On the face of it, yes, playing second fiddle to someone as mercurial as BSP supremo Kanshi Ram may seem something of a comedown, but again its interests are not merely ruling UP, that may be Kanshi Ram's The BJP wants to rule the country, for which it does not mind making a simple sacrifice, which is also only a temporary one.

And playing second fiddle is not something the party shies away from. In Maharashtra it has continued to bat second to the Shiv Sena just as it looks to a Sena without Thackeray, when it will make a determined bid to fill the breach. Even if it doesn't come to pass, the BJP is happy letting the Sena keep Bombay and Maharashtra, so long as it gets the lion's share of the parliamentary seats -- here too it has sacrificed short-term gain: The chief ministership -- for long-term profitability.

And, that, ultimately is what politics is all about.

And look what has happened to the Congress and the United Front with this one single announcement.

The only way for the Congress to make a comeback bid on the political arena was keeping the BJP out of power in UP. And for the United Front, despite its southern comfort prime minister and the heavy dependence on the MPs from the south, keeping UP out of the BJP's clutches was always the prime thing.

After all, just to jog one's memory, the very raison d'etre of the United Front government. with the Congress agreeing to support it from the outside, was anti-BJPism. And, when the BJP failed to retain UP in the last assembly election, hurrahs went up over how successful the strategy of pooling resources against it had been. Technically, at least, the United Front has lost its reason for remaining in office.

Oh, there is no immediate danger of the government collapsing, since the Congress is in no shape to face another general elections what with Sitaram Kesri busier fending off challenges from his predecessor in office.

But the BJP knows that the present government in New Delhi will not continue in office and that fresh elections will be a reality either late this year, or the latest next year. By which time, under the terms of the agreement with the BSP, it will have its own chief minister in office in Lucknow.

With the new government in UP already making sounds against the Samajwadi Party leadership's shenanigans -- and, frankly, someone should seriously look into the kind of candidates it had fielded in the Bombay civic election before they praise this great defender of the secular faith -- things are bound to hot up this summer. And this will be one time when even the cool climes of Switzerland, which has offered our politicians refuge in times of crises in more ways than one, will offer no respite for them.

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