Commentary/ Saisuresh Sivaswamy

Laloo's fig leaf is blown off in the political gust

When things are fine, they are stupendous. And when things start to go bad, nightmares take on pleasant hues. Nowhere is this more true than in the cut and thrust world of politics. And who can bear better testimony to this than Bihar Chief Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav.

All along, right from the time controversy broke over the Central Bureau of Investigation's premature announcement that he would be chargesheeted in the fodder scam, Yadav had taken refuge behind the governor's skirts. But now, with Raj Bhavan finally ending weeks of suspense in the matter by sanctioning his prosecution, where does Yadav run? Where does he hide? It was not long ago that he led the Janata Dal to a landslide victory in Bihar, leading many to speculate that with the party's decimation at the hands of the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, Laloo was the de facto supremo in the organisation.

The fact that he was president of the party, at a time when other parties were debating the issue of dual office, obviously helped him to consolidate his hold over the organisation. In fact, it is widely believed that it was his opposition to the Tamil Maanila Congress that put paid to G K Moopanar's prime ministerial ambitions. Till about six months ago, his position within the party and outside was virtually unassailable.

And, the fact that it took less than three months for the tide to completely turn against him, should leave no one in doubt about the ephemeral nature of politics. Today, not only is his chief ministership coming to an end, even his hold over the organisation has been seriously threatened by the sudden change in fortunes. Murphy's famous dictum -- whatever can go wrong, will -- certainly has found a living proof in the humble Yadav leader from Bihar.

Laloo's dilemma is in many ways a manifestation of the differences in perception between the real India -- or Bharat, if you will -- and the make believe world that most of us urbanites are comfortable with. When Laloo runs into a problem, as he did over the fodder scam, we expect him to react as someone from our world would -- embrace democratic ideals and step down till the charges are disproved. But that is not the world Laloo or his constituents belong to. In Laloo's world, the reasoning is simple: guilt or otherwise is established in a court of law, not outside. Ergo, there is no need to go before that is done. Occasionally, however, the two worlds come together, as they appear to have done now, leaving Laloo puzzled. He knows that his own people have judged him in a manner reminiscent of the other world, and he is not sure what he is to do now.

It is obvious what will do, however, He will have to resign, even if he doesn't want to, for his is the ignominy of becoming the first public servant against whom proceedings have been sanctioned while holding office. The party cannot live down that opprobrium, and the only way the situation can be salvaged is by getting him to step down.

But there will be a price that Laloo will demand before agreeing to make way for someone else. Which is that he be allowed to continue as president of the party, the elections to which post have virtually torn as under the organisation. There is no way the party will stand to gain from this move, and the stalwarts of the United Front know that they cannot afford to grant him his wish unless they are willing to risk the accompanying bad press this will entail.

But the grim reality for the 'sideline Laloo' line like the prime minister and his predecessor -- who, incidentally, lost the job because Laloo was against him -- is that dislodging the Bihari is easier said than done.

For the party, or what passes off in its place, owes its very existence to this man. So how can you sideline him without letting it affect the party? It is normal to expect, then, that a battle royal is on the cards for control of the organisation.

For the Janata Dal, and by extension the United Front, things do not seem to be going all too well at this juncture. The string of bad news began with the elevation of Sitaram Kesri as full-time president of the Congress party, and it is no one's case that he will allow the present arrangement to continue to place for another four years. Sooner rather than later, an election is going to be forced on the JD and the nation, never mind is they are not ready for it.

The next nightmare, of course, is the one involving Yadav, their star campaigner. What this means is that the JD is completely paralysed at a time when the party should go on the offensive. At the end of the day, things boil down to Laloo, who appears to have lost his political touch after his re-election as Bihar chief minister. It was within his power to undertake a damage control exercise the minute CBI causally drooped the remark that he was in their cross-hairs. Laloo could have played out the controversy by making a clean breast of the entire sordid incident, but he chose the obdurate way out.

And the price he is paying because of his adamancy will be paid out also by his party, although none of them have sullied their hands. Laloo, conversely, could have offered himself up for a probe by an independent agency and stepped down to facilitate it, the minute news of the chargesheet against him was publicised, but he has cleverly taken the easy way out. That one gesture would have pushed Laloo's stocks up by anything.

Which means that the gameplan is ready in his mind. Presumably it will be that he has decided to take down anyone who has over the last couple of days crossed his path, including challengers to a post which he holds as his own. The tragedy is that we will be unwilling spectators of a political game being enacted here. The one thing the rest of can manage is not to get caught in the crossfire.

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