Commentary/Saisuresh Sivaswamy

In an arrangement that is so fragile, where the presence and absence of one or the other constituent makes for a life and death question

Any puzzlement over Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi's unwavering stance in support of his beleaguered Bihar counterpart, Laloo Prasad Yadav, may be set aside. For the Dravida chieftain is merely echoing the sentiments of the guiding light of Opposition politics and the man behind Mandal, V P Singh's dictates who, in a quirky reversal of his stand before the 1989 elections, has downgraded corruption to second place, yanking upwards the issue of social justice.

Yes, it is strange, for in election after general election, corruption has figured as a major plank. For the first and only time, perhaps, corruption was made into an issue that ejected Rajiv Gandhi from the prime ministership, thanks to Singh. Social justice, on the other hand, has never been the main election issue anytime; V P Singh may subsequently rationalise his lightning decision to implement the report gathering dust in the social welfare department, but no party has so far made social justice as the main issue and won an election.

Even the increasingly disunited front's rationale for bringing disparate parties under one umbrella was not Mandal or social justice, but the need to keep out communal forces, aka the Bharatiya Janata Party. Corruption as an issue has always figured prominently on the agenda of most of the parties comprising the United Front, so the need to pussyfoot in the present instance merely because of the alleged involvement of one of its founding members, smacks of political expediency.

The only hope for the front lies in the court absolving Laloo Yadav of complicity, acquiescence in the fodder scam, next week. The possibility of this happening, to me, seem very low. Unlike in the case of Opposition leaders, the chargesheet against a serving chief minister would have been thoroughly vetted by the legal department of the Central Bureau of Investigation; the fact that the Bihar governor took some time over his sanction, too, indicates that he was not merely admiring the quality of the paper on which the chargesheet was typed but having it evaluated by legal experts before he put his signature to it.

Neither the CBI nor the Bihar governor would have stuck their necks out in this matter unless they were convinced that the chargesheet had merit. So it would be interesting to see what the United Front does in case of a prima facie evidence against the Bihari leader.

That is only one side to the story. The other, and the more important one is the regular shock treatment administered to the front by its constituents. No sooner did it become known what the exit of the Janata Dal's Bihar component would not result in either the party submerging itself or the fall of the I K Gujral government, than comes the shocker from Tamil Nadu.

In an arrangement that is so fragile, where the presence and absence of one or the other constituent makes for a life and death question, the parties should either learn to resolve their difference amicably, or call the whole show off.

For it is not just the future of the Front that comes into question everytime this happens, but more important is the message that is sent across the world that the Indian democracy is vulnerable. It is not a message that has positive connotations for the economy, especially at a time when the country has been tomtomming its existence in the international financial markets.

Increasingly, the United Front gives the impression of being a stopgap arrangement before a more stable arrangement emerges in its place, either through fresh elections or through machinations. The latter is not a possibility that needs to be scoffed at; the active involvement of the Congress in the Janata Dal's JD fracas is a pointer in this direction.

The Congress top brass knows that all is not fine with its electoral chances. It may have decided to turn aggressive-- witness Jitendra Prasada's actions in Uttar Pradesh and Murli Deora's in Maharashtra, two states in which the co-partners in governance is the BJP -- but it has not so far turned public opinion in the party's favour. In fact, if the Bombay events are any indication, Vox Populi may as well turn against the Congress for its machinations. Thus, even if fresh elections are to be held in the near future, the chances of the Congress re-emerging at the top appear remote.

So what better way to ascend the gaddi than through a palace coup, as done in the Dilli sultanat? Which explains Sitaram Kesri's bearhug for his political foe from Bihar. Kesri knew that Yadav would get a raw deal from the United Front leadership unless he stepped down. And any chief minister who has been witness to Madan Lal Khurana's tragedy after the stepped down as New Delhi chief minister on being chargesheeted in the hawala scam, would never have the heart to emulate him, which is what perhaps happened with Yadav. Kesri's attempt is to wreck the UF from within and bring it down, chary as he is of doing an encore of his March 30 misadventure, and Yadav may just come in handy in his plans.

It will be a case of give and take. The Congress will refuse to oppose the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Patna in return for help extended by it in New Delhi. Clearly Kesri's effort is to capture the Centre, while the states could wait. It may not be a perfect strategy, but considering that he does not have much time at his disposal, it may work.

Provided Yadav agrees to play ball. He is not overly enthused by the prospects of aligning with the Congress party, after having fought against it all through his political life, but his remaining in the UF is becoming increasingly untenable. That the United Front is disunited over Laloo would be stating the obvious; in fact, if anything or anyone has come to close to pulling apart this political thingamajig, it is the Bihar chief minister.

V P Singh realises this, as well as the Congress party's intentions, hence his endeavour from his hospital bed to downplay corruption in high places. It may not make sense, but obviously the raja of Mandal has changed ever since he turned political consultant.

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