'Amritpal is finished politically'

'It is funny that he's on CCTV all the time, but the Punjab police can't find him.'

"If he had stood there and offered arrest, he would have had some chance of revival. But he escaped while others were arrested. His political career is over," says Mandeep Singh Bajwa, the national security and strategic affairs analyst based in Chandigarh.

"It is evident that he was suspect because he has been giving statements in favour of Khalistan and threatened the country's home minister with elimination, yet there was no ED, IT, NIA investigation against him," Bajwa tells Rediff.com's Nikhil Lakshman.

The Punjab police has been unable to catch Amritpal Singh since his escape two weeks ago.

I find it funny that he's on CCTV all the time, but the Punjab police can't find him. They arrested others and released 197, but they can't find him.

He has probably gone underground to consolidate his money.

Amrtipal overplayed himself in the Ajnala incident. The AAP government and Punjab Police took the moral high ground by saying they did not allow the Guru Granth Sahib to be desecrated, but people are not convinced.

The police could have handled it in other ways. They could have put him under surveillance and used drones. They could have got their own priests and asked them to take the Guru Granth Sahib to the nearest gurdwara.

The Punjab Police was not even carrying the right equipment, leave alone fire arms, so naturally they would be overwhelmed.

The age-old police method of arrest is to land up at a suspect's house in the early hours of the morning, surround and arrest him.

Amritpal left his home at 9.45 am, yet there was no police presence. He came into Jalandhar district where the police had barricades en route with a huge police party mounted in about 100 vehicles.

Keeping in mind the crucial parliamentary by-election in Jalandhar on May 10, one can draw the conclusion that this was done in the hope that the arrest would be a big thing and would influence the Hindu vote.

In the Jalandhar parliamentary constituency, there are nine assembly segments, four-and-a-half form part of the city. If they sweep the city, they will win, hence this was the intention.

Is Amritpal Singh popular or is that popularity a myth?

He has no popularity. At the most, there were two-and-a-half protests when he was arrested. That is no popularity at all.

During Operation Blue Star, Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale's premise was to hold out in the Golden Temple for 24 hours which was based on his commander-in-chief General Shabeg Singh's military plan.

I've seen General Shabeg's handwritten notes in appreciation of the Indian Army's plan. The Indian Army did operate in the same manner he had analysed and his own defensive thinking was based on a series of delaying positions with the leadership in the citadel which was the Akal Takht.

The idea was to hold them (the Indian Army) off for 24 hours. They had thought that after 24 hours the Sikh masses would be on the move. Shabeg had been promised that Pakistan would invade, but there was hardly any movement of people.

Some who did come out were persuaded by the army to go back and at some places the army opened fire. So there was hardly any mass upsurge outside the Golden Temple.

Eyewitnesses said Bhindranwale used to listen to the six o'clock morning news and when he heard that curfew had been extended, he realised that nobody was coming and that the game was up.

I think between 8.30 am and 9.15 am, he came out himself. The tanks across the Sarovar (in the Golden Temple) opened up their machines and he was killed.

The moment he was killed, the others with him were free from their oath to him and tried to escape. A handful tried to swim to the sanctum sanctorum, but were shot.

Why did Bhindranwale not try and escape?

One, he was surrounded, plus escape would finish him off because he had taken an oath to defend the Golden Temple till death or victory.

In Amritpal's case, he is politically finished because if he had stood there and offered arrest, he would have had some chance of revival. But he escaped while others were arrested. His political career is over.

As far as support for Khalistan is concerned, it must be about 3% or so, and after the farmers agitation it must be 6% because of the immense anger over the way they were treated.

How do you account for Amritpal's rapid ascent?

He suddenly comes out of nowhere and takes over a defunct organisation by force after its founder's death. He has huge amounts of money and very expensive cars. He has weapons, spends money like water and has a big social media presence.

It is being said that the ISI has propped him. I have studied the ISI for forty years and they don't have the capability of planting someone like this -- they don't have the sophistication, funds or network on the ground to do this.

It is evident that he was suspect because he has been giving statements in favour of Khalistan and threatened the country's home minister with elimination, yet there was no ED, IT, NIA investigation against him. He was not under the surveillance of the IB, no Pegasus programme or electronic surveillance.

As far as the Indian security establishment is concerned, he did not have a security profile.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com