Commentary/Saisuresh Sivaswamy

Chavan sets the stage for Rao's expulsion

If politics makes for strange bedfellows, it also makes for stranger antagonists. Who would have thought, just a month ago, that former Union home minister S B Chavan would turn against the man whose trusted aide he had remained for more than five years? And why, having decided to rat on his leader, did he choose to air his views in a much publicised interview to a little-known satellite channel, when he could have easily chosen the stronger cousins of the same channel, or could have easily plumped for a national newspaper?

While the latter points to the slowly waning importance politicians attach to the fourth estate -- preferring to be seen as well as heard in drawing rooms across the country if not the region -- Chavan's outburst against P V Narasimha Rao is part of a well orchestrated campaign to first isolate the former prime minister within the party before possibly removing him from the party. For in doing so, there is a commingling of interest of both Sonia Gandhi and party president Sitaram Kesri.

His removal from the party he headed for a little more than five years, would serve as sweet revenge for the denizen of 10 Janpath, who has had the mortification of seeing Rao insinuate -- through his inaction in non-speech -- that her husband was on the Bofors take, and what is worse used that as a weapon against her.

Considering the varied reactions from the Congress party ever since the Bofors documents reached Indian shores, one would not be entirely of the mark in inferring that the payments were indeed paid to Indian politicians who were in a position to influence the decision to buy the Swedish howitzer; their number must have been infinitesimal, perhaps just around two if not less.

And the Congressman also knows that the limitless funds that the party provides during the time of elections -- never mind the ceiling on election expenditure -- comes through such transactions, and there is little outrage on the fact of bribes having been paid in the Bofors deal. The outrage may be over the fact that someone has been caught in the act -- which is perhaps a pragmatic view of things as they are in India.

For Sonia, the time has obviously come to make her moves against Rao, now that he is clearly down and out.

For Kesri, there is propinquity of thought over this course of action, simply because he has set his sights on the prime ministership, which can be had by him only in a general election. The United Front government is already on notice, and will be lucky to survive this year in office.

The biggest stumbling block to holding fresh elections, for the Congress, is the fear of debacle. Nothing has happened since the previous election to point to an upswing in its fortunes; in fact, if Punjab is any example, the voter disenchantment with the party is growing. And at least one reputed opinion poll has given the Bharatiya Janata Party a lead over the Congress in the case of a general election.

Whatever be the real cause of the downfall in the Congress party's fortunes, consensus veers around the view that it all began with the Muslims -- the party's traditional votebank -- deserting it to flirt with other outfits, in some cases even the BJP and the Shiv Sena. Again, this parting of ways had to do with the then Congress government's inaction when the Babri Masjid was being systematically dismantled by hordes of the saffron brigade. Narasimha Rao it is, who is held up as the cause of Muslim ire against the party.

So the plan that must be going on in Kesri's mind is this: offer Rao up as the party's sacrificial goat. Make him out to be solely responsible for the Masjid debacle, and disown him. And if that does not amount to an atonement before the Muslims -- who have been seeking a public apology from the Congress party for allowing the Masjid to be demolished -- and hopefully bring them back to the Congress fold, nothing will. At least, so must go the dominant belief in the higher echelons of the Congress party.

And for Sonia, who has suffered many an insult from Rao in silence, this course of action should not present any major problem.

Thus Chavan, the trusted aide of Rao, has become the first to desert what is clearly a sinking ship. And once opinion begins to well up within the party against the former prime minister, the other steadfast ones too should follow suit.

The Rao camp's effort at diverting the party's attention to other things -- like the rout in Punjab -- too will serve little purpose, since the results in the border state had more to with decisions taken when he was Congress president or the prime minister.

But being a skilled practitioner of the art of Realpolitik, Rao too will know that followers are attracted by the spectre of power, and that currently he is on a losing wicket. And given his past, there is little to show that he will go down with a fight. In all probability, he will choose to bide his time, but that is something of which he does not have an abundance.

It is odder for his lieutenants like Chavan who have decided cross over. For under the new dispensation, they will always be looked upon with suspicion, and their main grouse, which they claim led to the parting of ways with Rao in the first place, will remain unaddressed. Reverting to Chavan, he surely cannot be expecting that his arch-rival Sharad Pawar, whose elevation as floor coordinator of the Congress party in the Lok Sabha led to his deserting Rao, will be cut to size or that he will be elevated to his level.

What is not entirely improbable, of course, is that he may finally make his peace with Pawar, finally realising after so many years that in politics, strange bedfellows are nothing, well, strange -- that being the premise with which one began this article.

Tell us what you think of this column