Commentary/ Saisuresh Sivaswamy

UF gives into blackmail once, and it won't be the last time

It is the weak alone that can be bullied, and the United Front, fraught as it is with powerful satraps, has demonstrated how frail its unity is when push actually comes to the shove.

And, since it has not gone public on what made it change its decision to live or die by former prime minister H D Deve Gowda, it is not unreasonable to conclude that it was the lure of power and the perks of office that made it swallow the indignity heaped on it by the Congress and plumb for I K Gujral.

But in doing so, the brains trust of the United Front has overlooked one important lesson minders hand out to victims of blackmail: not to succumb since doing so does not ensure that the blackmail will cease. And true to form, right from the time that the new prime minister has assumed office, the Congress has been issuing a daily litany of do's and don'ts. The Congress does not say what will happen if these instructions are not followed, but the sordid events of the recent past leave no one in doubt what is in store for the ruling agglomeration of parties.

Which has led even the senior statesmen of the ruling front to talk of the present delicate arrangement breaking down in the next year and holding mid-term elections.

It may not come to that, but how long can the United Front put up with the daily reminders from the Congress party that the government would fall if it crossed the line? After spending years in the shifting sands of the world of international diplomacy, the prime minister may not be unduly worried by this scoring of political points, but he alone does not comprise the government.

There are others, more powerful than he perhaps is, whose political fate depends on their opposition to the Congress party and who cannot be seen to be dictated to by the former ruling party. They can put up with the sniping from the Congress only at the risk of their political careers, and sooner rather than later Gujral will have to heed their hurt sentiments.

The much-touted coordination committee between the two sides is an example of how difficult rapprochement would be, especially between friends who have fallen foul of each other. Fears that it may even supercede the Union Cabinet are not entirely unfounded. To give an example, let us say that the Congress feels that a decision taken by the Cabinet could affect its political interests adversely, and the coordination panel, after due consideration of the matter, agrees with this and decides to prune the scope of the decision. This would effectively reduce the powers of the Union Cabinet.

One way out of this landmine is to have all the important decisions taken by the government vetted by the coordination panel. This again would be unprecedented.

What it boils down to is that the AICC president has bowled a googly to the government, and the latter has no idea of how to face the delivery.

Which also means that the arrangement, which has secured a nod from Rashtrapati Bhavan -- otherwise the UF would not have been reinvited to form the government after is defeat in the Lok Sabha -- is at best a temporary one. And, it is a safe bet to assume that the two sides have agreed to this only because of a shared perception that elections at this point would benefit only the BJP.

The Tamil Maanila Congress's adamancy in staying out of the government and the amusing spectacle of the prime minister assuaging the party's pique is not only a point to Gujral's style of functioning, but also the government's own frailty that does not permit even 20 members of Parliament to break off.

And it could well turn out to be the government's Achilles heel. If the rationale behind making Gujral prime minister is to strengthen the fight against the BJP in the north by reverting to a northerner as prime minister, then the decision-makers have erred by settling for someone who is not known for either his combative skills in the election arena or for his fight against the BJP.

And by doing so, they may not only lose the battle against the BJP in the north -- Gujral is after all from Punjab where the Akali Dal and the BJP romped home together only recently -- it may also send the wrong signal to the south, a region from which the United Front draws considerable strength. And the TMC's staying away from the government and talk of hurt regional pride may have at least a few takers in a region that resents being ruled from New Delhi.

In the absence of any assertions to the contrary from the United Front, the government may well be on its way to becoming a lameduck administration, that is if the Congress party keeps up its daily broadside. Granted, it is nothing more than pinpricks at the moment, and come from a party that has drawn first blood in the encounter. All along the Congress party never believed that the Front would give in to its president's demand of changing the leader, and suddenly having found that his gamble has paid off it seems it has decided to indulge in overkill.

Which is something Sitaram Kesri has to guard against. For despite having won the war of nerves with the United Front, most voters, he will be surprised to know, do not approve of his bullying tactics and if elections are held at this moment would readily vote against his party. He needs to rectify this impression before going on to another round of heroics, which in all probability would be the last act before the curtains come down on this Lok Sabha. Until then, it would be in his party's interests to not rock a leaking boat.

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