Could the Asian-American community be the swing vote in the November presidential elections?

Betsy Kim, deputy director for the Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) Vote Program of Obama for America, suggests that it could be, in "this era, where elections are won by the smallest of margins".

There is bipartisan agreement on this, given the way the two campaigns have been courting the Asian American groups, including the Indian American population.

"The Obama-Biden campaign realizes that and the campaign has devoted resources to a national Asian American and Pacific Islander Vote Program and we have put together a program focusing on key battleground states with large AAPI populations such as Virginia," said Kim.

Underlining the critical importance of marginal communities, Kim took the example of Virginia, a state that hasn't voted Democratic in presidential elections since the 1960s. At the time of writing this, Real Clear Politics, which compiles all polling across the nation and comes up with an average figure, has the Obama-Biden Democratic ticket ahead by a 2.4 margin � a remarkable achievement in itself, in a state that President George W Bush [Images] took with an 8.1 per cent margin in 2000, and held again with an 8.2 margin in 2004.

"The 2004 census shows that there are over 370,000 Asian Americans living in Virginia, and that represents about 5 percent of the state's population. That might seem like a relatively small percent if you spread it throughout the state � but that's actually not the case," she explains.

"The AAPI population is concentrated in certain areas in the state � for example, over 150,000 live in Fairfax County, making up over 15 percent of that population in that county. So, that allows us � the campaign here in Virginia � to target our efforts in these areas with large AAPI populations."

As part of this effort, the Virginia team of AAPI has hired "AAPI field directors and organizers who have already recruited hundreds of AAPI volunteers, and our volunteers are out there registering new voters, we are knocking on doors of AAPI households, we are phone-banking in languages of AAPI households about why Barack Obama [Images] best represents our community on the issues. We are really excited and thrilled that over 280,000 voters have been registered in Virginia so far," she said.

Another reason for the concerted effort is the realization that presidential elections are increasingly won or lost by very close margins. In 2000, thus, the result was decided by roughly 500 votes in Florida [Images], AAPI points out, and in 2004, the final outcome hinged on just two percent of the vote in Ohio.

The Democratic campaign thus has focussed on registering new voters, especially in the swing states, and have brought in over 200,000 in Pennsylvania; more than 115,000 in North Carolina; and over 150,000 new Democrats in Indiana, AAPI points out.

Kim told India Abroad that Virginia was not the only example of how the community could swing the election, and thus begin to play a decisive role in national politics. Similar opportunities had been identified in other battleground states, and an operational template similar to the Virginia model was being deployed in those states as well.

"If you look at the total, for example, in Nevada, where about 6 percent of the total population in the state is concentrated in Clark County, even though we are about 6 percent of the entire state, in Clark County the AAPI population is about 8.4 percent of the overall voting population."

Nevada had gone to Bush in 2000 and 2004, but at the time of writing this, Obama has pulled ahead of his Republican rival John McCain [Images], albeit marginally. The state had been, in all polls, marked solidly red till last month, but recent polling has changed that status and put Nevada in the column of toss-up states trending blue.

Another example is Ohio, where the Obama campaign, again, is pulling off a surprise. Bush had taken the state, which has 20 electoral votes, with margins of 3.5 and 2.1 in 2000 and 2004 respectively, but the Democratic ticket is currently leading by 2.0.

The AAPI population constitutes two per cent of the total in the state, but in the Beaverton and Hillsborough counties, "we comprise almost 9 percent of the overall voting population," Kim points out. "So in those battleground states, though we may be small overall, the fact that we are concentrated helps us to target Asian Americans votes and reach out to them."

The campaign has realized that the most effective tactic is to have Asian American volunteers talk to Asian American voters, "because it always helps to have someone who looks like you coming to your door. "we have been taking this very seriously and are recruiting field organizers and volunteers that are Asian American-specific to reach out to the AAPI voter in these critical battleground states."

Kim identified Oregon, Washington, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Nevada, Minnesota and Michigan as being among the states where such efforts had been deployed. "We also have field directors and what we call people volunteers � essentially, people who are spending their own money and giving all their time to the campaign." Such volunteers from within the community number in the hundreds, she added.

A factor fuelling AAPI's increasingly focussed efforts is the realization that the demographic trends heavily towards the Democratic party. Thus, records indicate that in 1992, 31 per cent of the AAPI vote went for the Bill Clinton-Al Gore ticket. In 1996, that figure went up to 43 per cent. In 2000, 54 per cent of the AAPI vote went to the Al Gore-Joe Lieberman ticket, and in 2004, close to 74 per cent of the AAPI vote was for the John Kerry-John Edwards Democratic ticket. Overall, it is estimated that over two thirds of all registered Asian American voters identify themselves as Democrats.

Considerable research has gone into the effort, to identify not just Asian American populations as a broad category, but to break it down by ethnicity. In order to fine tune the appeal, the campaign has translated its literature and fact sheets into languages as diverse as Korean, Vietnamese, Chinese, Hindi, Malayalam and other Asian American languages.

"This campaign is unprecedented � the resources that we have devoted to doing this type of outreach," Kim said, adding that the top layer of this campaign was "a national network of Indian American and South Asian volunteers who identify themselves as South Asians for Obama", and who have been active in reaching out to the community across the country.

In Virginia, says Kim, a concentrated effort is being made for voter registration among the Indian American community. Interestingly, the campaign is also looking to touch an emotional chord, by maintaining a sizeable presence in, and activities connected to, the upcoming Navratri festive celebrations that are a highlight of the community calendar this month.