India could convert its Polar Space Launch Vehicle into an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile within a year or two of a decision to do so, says a National Intelligence Estimate, representing a consensus of all US intelligence agencies, including the CIA, projecting trends through 2015.

Most components needed for an ICBM are available from India's indigenous space programme, it says, adding New Delhi believes that a nuclear-capable missile delivery option is necessary to deter Pakistani first use of nuclear weapons and thereby preserve the option to wage limited conventional war.

"Nuclear weapons also serve as a hedge against a confrontation with China," the NIE says.

The NIE expects Agni to be the mainstay of India's nuclear-armed missile force.

It assesses that Sagarika, a submarine-launched ballistic missile, would probably not be deployed until 2010 or later.

India continues to push towards self-sufficiency, specially regarding its missile programme. "Nevertheless, New Delhi still relies heavily on foreign assistance," it says.

Pakistan, it says, since the 1980s, has pursued development of an indigenous ballistic missile capacity in an attempt to avoid reliance on a foreign entity.

Islamabad will continue with its present ballistic missile production goals until it has achieved a survivable, flexible force capable of striking a large number of targets throughout most of India, it adds.

Foreign support for Pakistan's 'ambitious' solid-propellant ballistic missile acquisition and development programme 'has been critical', the NIE says.