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The new era is here --- er, is it?

Then there is the Stalin method --- send your opponents into exile, or behind bars, before an election falls due. (This method is the route preferred by General Pervez Musharraf.) And there are infinitely more subtle methods --- where Kerala's political parties excel.

But is there any way to learn whether polls are actually honest? There is, to my mind, one unquestionable proof. If the ruling party loses, you can safely assume the election was fair. So, considering the hammering given to the National Conference and the Bharatiya Janata Party in Jammu & Kashmir, this was probably an extremely fair election.

Why this happened is a matter for analysis and introspection for the two parties, one regional and the other pan-Indian, on the losing side. But the consequences of the election, hung assembly and all, may end up as a matter of concern for us all.

The immediate result has been a further diminution of any Western enthusiasm for the cause of an 'independent' Kashmir. This, to be honest, is nothing new; the United States and its allies --- even the Chinese --- have been becoming increasingly cool to the prospect of an independent nation. They suspect it would just become a launching pad for Al Qaeda (or another such organisation). Having removed the Taliban, the last thing anyone wants is another such government in the same part of the world.

Far more important than the reaction in the chancelleries of the West, however, is the reaction within India. It seemed to prove that the citizens of Jammu & Kashmir are willing to participate in the same democratic process as the rest of the country. (Also to have much the same 'Throw the rascals out!' reaction given half a chance.) But I am not quite sure why everyone is tom-toming the line about the state finally having had 'free and fair' polls.

Think about it for a minute. For almost 50 years India has taken the position that there is no need to conduct a plebiscite in Jammu & Kashmir on the issue of remaining with India. When asked why, India's representatives would point to the elections held regularly in the state, insisting that these showed that the people were implicitly giving their consent to remaining in India by participating in polls. Now it seems that all previous polls were rigged --- or at any rate less than 'free and fair' --- which throws a question mark on that comforting assumption...

It would also be wise to remember always that elections are not a panacea in themselves. If the voters want decent water and electricity, if they seek jobs and roads, I fail to see how voting in a hung assembly shall help Jammu & Kashmir. Once the initial burst of enthusiasm at the fall of the Abdullah dynasty faded away, the Congress and Mufti Mohammed Sayeed got down to serious trading. And as I write the only thing they seem to agree on is that a person from the other party should not be chief minister. Not exactly an auspicious beginning to the promised new era!

Nevertheless, put me down as a wary optimist. I think the polls have been a valuable catharsis for the voters and a salutary kick in the pants for our lords and masters. The fate of the Abdullahs is far too fresh in the memory for the Ghulam Nabi Azads and the Sayeeds to throw too many tantrums. If they cannot come to terms, the prospect of a snap poll look quite good. What treatment do you think the voters will mete out to those who couldn't form a government?

The elections in Jammu and Kashmir were also a wholesome counterpoint to those in Pakistan. While foreign observers declared that the polls in India were as fair as declared, they had other reactions to those in Pakistan. A give-away clue was the manner in which Pakistan sought to throw mud on the polls in Jammu and Kashmir rather than defend its own election. (It wasn't particularly good propaganda; Pakistan declared that the polling had been rigged in one constituency where the election had actually been countermanded altogether. Sloppy homework!)

Elections are the valves that keep the lid on the pressure-cooker of democracy. Delhi allowed the steam to escape where Musharraf tried to plug it. Somehow, I think the general made the wrong choice!

T V R Shenoy