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Catch-22 for Pranab

The Left Front enjoys an absolute majority in the West Bengal assembly. The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance does not have a majority in the Rajya Sabha. Put those facts together and it is next to impossible to impose President's rule in West Bengal. (Under the Constitution, Parliament must support the dismissal of a state government; if the Opposition blocks the move in the Rajya Sabha, any such move is futile -- as happened in Bihar.)

So why is Mamata Banerjee insisting that Article 356 be employed in West Bengal on the grounds of deteriorating law and order?

There could be more than one reason. First, she genuinely fears that the assembly polls due next year will be rigged. (She has enough reasons to back her up, going by the atrocious manner in which the Lok Sabha election was conducted in the state last year.) Second, she wants to push the Congress into a corner. Third, she is testing the waters for her colleagues in Delhi.

If you ask me, it is a combination of all three.

Which brings up another question: which way will Pranab Mukherjee jump? It is Mukherjee, the recently appointed president of the West Bengal Pradesh Congress Committee, who will be in the hot seat when Banerjee poses the question. He knew that he was taking over an unenviable job when Sonia Gandhi appointed him -- behind his back and much to his fury, I am told. It has not become any easier since then.

Mukherjee's task is to make the Congress stand out in a polity polarised between the National Democratic Alliance and the Left Front. He is in the uncomfortable position of agreeing with everything Mamata Banerjee says about the Left Front, but lacking the freedom to say so since the Congress cannot be seen on the same side as the "communal" Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies. And silence merely strengthens Banerjee's charge that the Congress is nothing more than "the B-team of the Communists".

Assume Banerjee gets her way and persuades her colleagues in Delhi that the Left Front ministry in Calcutta should be dismissed. Some of them might not like it, but I am fairly certain they would all vote for the dismissal of the Jyoti Basu ministry if it came down to a vote in the Lok Sabha.

Since the NDA enjoys an unassailable majority in the Lower House, no problems are anticipated. But, as with Bihar, it is the Rajya Sabha that will prove to be the stumbling block.

Of course, if the Congress backed the treasury benches it would be a different story. Sonia Gandhi's party is still the single largest group in the Upper House of Parliament and joining hands with the NDA would ensure that the Left Front government would not only be dismissed, but stay dismissed.

How will Pranab Mukherjee react, should this hypothetical situation come true?

President's rule would give Mamata Banerjee some advantages. It would put the Left Front ministry on notice to be on its best behaviour. Even if the decision fails in the Rajya Sabha, it would drive home the Trinamul Congress leader's charge that the Congress and the Communists are in partnership, thus attracting even more anti-Marxist voters to its fold.

None of this speculation would have arisen, were it not because the Communist Party of India (Marxist) is going downhill. The party has a simple majority in the West Bengal assembly -- as it does not in Kerala -- and could, if required, rule without backing from its partners. But Chief Minister Jyoti Basu is well over 80 and has publicly announced his determination to retire. There is nobody in the Marxist ranks with his stature and the younger men are seen as rude and arrogant.

After 23 years in power, the Communists have become lazy, not particularly different from any other party. In the 1999 general election, Jyoti Basu's own assembly segment voted for, of all parties, the BJP!

That does not mean the NDA -- led by the Trinamul Congress in West Bengal -- shall sweep the polls. Hubris of that kind led to a debacle in Bihar, where the massive NDA victory in the Lok Sabha polls turned into a victory of sorts for Laloo Prasad Yadav.

The Left Front is, of course, far more entrenched in West Bengal than the Rashtriya Janata Dal was in Bihar. And it should not be forgotten that the Trinamul Congress and the BJP are still some way off achieving parity with the Left.

But the simple fact is that the Congress and the NDA between them polled more votes than the Left Front. The one thing that scares the Marxists the most is the consolidation of all those anti-Left votes -- both among the voters of West Bengal and in the Rajya Sabha.

I think the Congress will be the loser no matter how matters turn. Assume that it falls in with Mamata Banerjee's demand to impose President's rule. What is the result? The credit, almost all of it, will go to the Trinamul Congress and the BJP. Assume that it does not agree, and even votes against the use of Article 356 if the issue comes up in the Rajya Sabha. Then, anti-Left voters will move in droves to the NDA and the Congress shall really become the "B-team". (This fate has already overtaken Congressmen in neighbouring Bihar.)

Some say Jyoti Basu will be the last Marxist chief minister in Calcutta for a while. I have a different question: will Pranab Mukherjee be the last president of the Bengal Congress while the party is still an effective force?

T V R Shenoy