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May 5, 2000

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Time for a fresh start

India had a perfect relationship with the United States -- perfectly bad that is, since both countries agreed to disagree on just about everything.

Similarly, the best that you can say about the Indo-Chinese relationship over the past half-century is that it lacked the monotonous incivility of Delhi-Washington ties; the frenzy of the 'Bhai-Bhai' 1950s was followed by the deepest chill.

As we all know, the Clinton visit was astoundingly successful; could another presidential tour pay equal dividends with India's giant northern neighbour? That is what some hope for when President K R Narayanan visits China.

I do not expect any miracles. For all their surface bickering, India and the United States had some important factors in common -- economic ties, a common language (English), and a shared faith in democracy. (That order is quite deliberate.) Not a single one of these elements exists to alleviate the Indo-Chinese relationship. Quite the contrary -- China considers India an economic rival, and the leadership in Beijing has never concealed its disdain for democratic procedures.

Nevertheless, I am cautiously optimistic about some progress being made. The Chinese share the Indian perception that Islamic fundamentalism -- the forerunner of terrorism -- is a threat to the State. While China is not in the direct line of fire, its western provinces are uncomfortably close to the Muslim-dominated republics that sprang up after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Beijing knows perfectly well that some young Muslims from Sinkiang Uigur crossed the border to be trained in Pakistan's terrorist camps. The Chinese have made a point of declaring that some such who were caught were executed; intelligence sources state that yet others were killed in Pakistan thanks to pressure from China.

Over and above this, both India and the United States have gone out of their way to state that the new-found friendship between the two biggest democracies in the world is not necessarily the beginning of an anti-China axis. President K R Narayanan's visit is proof of that, as is the fact that Washington sent a special envoy to Beijing to convey the same message.

So far so good, but will there be any concrete measures to follow? Given that the Chinese and Indian armies face each other across the Himalayas, it might, perhaps, be good to start with some confidence-building measures. China could, for instance, host a delegation from India's National Defence Academy later in the year. And as a follow-up, China might allow active units to visit its shores...

Simultaneously, both sides feel that there should be slightly enhanced diplomatic encounters. I know that a joint working group has been meeting for quite a while now, but this exercise was something of a farce. It would solemnly meet just once every year, scarcely enough time to exchange polite remarks about the weather, leave alone other matters. Both the Indian and the Chinese governments agree that the group should meet more often, if nothing else.

The third area that offers some small scope of improvement is trade. I am not very sure how much improvement can be expected here, given that both countries are fighting for the same markets, offering much the same goods at much the same prices. But I suppose some small steps are better than nothing.

Readers will have noticed that I have not yet mentioned the most important issue that bedevils the Indo-Chinese relationship -- the border dispute. This, I understand, shall scarcely be mentioned -- perhaps not at all -- during K R Narayanan's visit. By mutual consent, both Delhi and Beijing have agreed to leave this alone until confidence-building measures lead to an easing of tension. (This is in stark contrast to the Pakistani attitude; Islamabad insists on beginning by talking about Kashmir.)

India does not believe that China's links with Pakistan shall weaken as a result of the thaw in Indo-Chinese relations. That might not even be desirable, given that China is one of the few nations that exercises some restraint on the men in Islamabad. But the exercise is good in itself; both China and India can use the breathing space if tensions ease.

By coincidence, both K R Narayanan and Atal Bihari Vajpayee are men who have long advocated better relations with China. As external affairs minister in the Morarji Desai government, the current prime minister visited China in 1979. K R Narayanan was the first Indian ambassador to Beijing after the Indo-Chinese war led to a snapping of relations. Neither fact is significant in itself, but both sides want to make a fresh start and these are as good omens as any.

T V R Shenoy

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