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March 25, 2000

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India satisfied with Clinton's Pak speech

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Amberish K Diwanji

Indians have expressed satisfaction at the United States President Bill Clinton's address to the people of Pakistan. They see his speech as a clear endorsement of India's stand on the key issues of resolving the Kashmir dispute and stopping cross-border terrorism.

The key elements of his speech, security analysts said, were his statements that borders could not be redrawn through military force and that the US would not interfere in resolving the Kashmir dispute.

"He did not say anything new, but what is significant is that the statements were made on Pakistani soil. He said he disapproves of the military regime. And on Kashmir, he is no longer equating India with Pakistan," said former foreign secretary, Salman Haidar.

He added that by explicitly asking Pakistan to respect the Line of Control, Clinton tilted the US towards the position held by India.

Professor Chintamani Mahapatra of the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, said the US president's speech was pleasing to India for three reasons.

"First, he said that unless violence stops, there can be no resumption of the Lahore process and that is up to Pakistan to do so. Second, he appealed to Pakistan to understand that there can be no military solution to the Kashmir dispute. And third, he said the US is in no position to mediate," said Mahapatra.

"The speech was very telling. It was both emotional and convincing. Clinton's remarks are also meant for India and he is telling both Islamabad and New Delhi where the US's future interests are going to lie."

Strategic analyst Brahma Chellaney was somewhat guarded in his reaction. "There is no doubt that his speech was very clear and what it tells us is that he was disappointed in his talks with the Pakistani leaders. But I think he has put the onus on India to resume the talks. He had said this in his address to the Indian Parliament and reiterated this in his speech to Pakistan," said Chellaney.

Chellaney pointed out that Clinton had said that engaging the military regime of Pakistan did not amount to endorsing it. "I think the bottom-line very clearly is that Pakistan is now India's problem and that the US will not interfere in South Asia," he added.

However, senior researcher at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, Sreedhar said Clinton's speech endorsed India's position. "It is clear that Pakistan's chief executive General Pervez Musharraf got a snub by the US president," he said.

Mahapatra pointed out that beyond speeches and statements, one must take the entire visit in its entirety.

"Clinton spent five days here. In India, he signed agreements on science, technology and commerce. He spoke of institutionalising the India-US dialogue up to the highest level and of continuing talks on the nuclear issue. By contrast, he spent only five hours in Pakistan where he simply gave them a lecture on dos and don'ts. This clearly tells us what the US is thinking."

Yet, despite Clinton's tough talking with Pakistan's military junta, it remains to be seen whether Islamabad will follow through on the US president's suggestion.

"It is a difficult question. Personally, I would be surprised if the Pakistanis accepted his suggestions," said Haidar.

Mahapatra added a word of caution. "Let us remember that Pakistan is not in a position to disagree totally. Also, one reason that Clinton actually went to Islamabad is because Washington DC still believes that it can influence Pakistan," he said.

Sreedhar also agreed that Washington did probably have some leverage over Islamabad but doubted if it would work on the issue of Kashmir. "Yet, whether Musharraf can actually do something against the terrorist groups that operate in Kashmir will become clear in a few weeks time," he concluded.

CLINTON VISITS INDIA:The complete coverage

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