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Congress gets left out

History repeats itself, Karl Marx informed his disciples, first as tragedy and then as comedy.

The old man would have loved to see what is going on in Kerala today.

In 1916 the Congress and the Muslim League came to an agreement that both parties would present a united front to the British. We all know how that, and subsequent agreements on the same lines, ended. If Partition was the tragedy which Marx predicted, the (possible) sundering of the alliance between the Congress and the Muslim League is the rib-tickling laugh-a-thon. Because, believe it or not, Sonia Gandhi's masterly diplomacy is ensuring that there won't be any Congress representative from Kerala in the Rajya Sabha.

This is a truly historic event though I doubt that the Italian-born Congress president realises the fact; up to now the Congress has always had somebody from Kerala in the Upper House of Parliament. The party can't plead the excuse that it lacks the strength in the Kerala assembly. There are three vacancies to be filled up, and a candidate requires thirty-six votes to win. The Congress has thirty-six legislators of its own in the assembly; sixty-one if you count all its allies. So what is going on?

Simple. Sonia Gandhi is desperate to keep the Muslim League in the Congress-dominated United Democratic Front. She has therefore ordered her party to leave the Rajya Sabha seat for the Muslim League. Pared down to basics this is nothing more than a last desperate throw of the dice.

How much sense does this make? Even if the Muslim League candidate makes it to the Rajya Sabha, what will stop the party from going over to the Left Democratic Front before the next assembly polls? (These, by the way, are due in March 2001.)

And how do Congressmen feel about the way in which their beloved leader is trampling all over them? Kerala has nine seats in the Rajya Sabha. At the moment, the CPI-M has three, and the CPI and the Kerala Congress-J have one each. The United Democratic Front has one seat, which belongs to the Muslim League. By rights, the Congress should have been assured at least one of the three vacancies; instead, it seems as if the Muslim League will double its quota.

The sole silver lining for the Congress is that it is not the only party which is having problems with a restive junior ally. The ruling CPI-M is equally embarrassed by the CPI (nominally its ally).

Just as the Muslim League is next only to the Congress in the United Democratic Front, so too is the CPI the second largest party in the Left Democratic Front; the CPI-M has forty MLAs in the Kerala assembly and the CPI has eighteen. By rights, the CPI-M should fill up one of the vacancies and leaving the other to the second-ranking party.

It has taken care of its own interests. But it also took a shocking decision by fielding a candidate from the relatively insignificant Revolutionary Socialist Party. The CPI was already miffed about Big Brother's efforts to woo the Muslim League, which would then probably replace it as the second party in the Left Democratic Front after the elections. The snub over the Rajya Sabha nominations proved to be the last straw, and an angry CPI has chosen to put up its own candidate.

This has opened up a can of worms. Let us assume that all the eighteen CPI legislators agree with the party leadership. This immediately scuttles the chances of the Revolutionary Socialist Party candidate. He requires thirty-six votes, but he can't get more than twenty-three. (I am assuming here that everyone in the Left Democratic Front will vote as ordered.)

This gives the advantage to the United Democratic Front. It will have enough votes left over -- twenty-six -- to decide the fate of the CPI and the RSP nominees. That gives both those parties an incentive to murmur sweetly to the Congress. Some people are already remembering that the longest serving government in Kerala was a Congress-CPI coalition led by Achutha Menon. (It was also the best in my opinion.)

Much might happen between now and the Rajya Sabha polls on June 23. For instance, the two Communist parties might agree on some kind of compromise. But we do know a couple of things already: first, there will be two Left Democratic Front victors, and second, there will be no Congressman in the Rajya Sabha from Kerala.

This article was written before the LDF agreed to a face-saving formula Friday allowing the CPI to put up its candidate for the Rajya Sabha poll

T V R Shenoy