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Can a tiger regain its lost stripes?

Bal Thackeray is at the crossroads of his political existence. Having discovered that if power arrests action, non-absolute power -- of the kind his party held in Maharashtra for five years -- arrests it absolutely, he has devised a not too original way to regain his outfit's standing.

The strategy is to go back to the party's roots: Which means not just advocating Maharashtrian interests aggressively, but also taking to the streets, in a throwback to the party's strategy that saw it gallop from the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation in 1985 to Mantralaya in just a decade.

Power, Thackeray must have realised in 1995, is rather like a woman. Both are invigorating to pursue; and less so to possess, especially when there is an adjunct -- be it the reviled mother-in-law or a straitjacket called the code of conduct.

It is obvious that the Shiv Sena was uncomfortable when it was the senior partner, along with the BJP, in the Maharashtra government. Ideally, it would have liked nothing better than to have its way -- which if often did, whether it was assaulting Maqbool Fida Husain or bringing the house down over Fire. But there was a limit to goondagardi when you are also running the government, and Thackeray must have been one relieved man when the Congress-NCP succeeded his party into Mantralaya.

In unleashing his men on the streets, Thackeray is motivated by the same factor that is making the affiliates of the Sangh Parivar chafe at the mouth: Power is a palliative for a few, but for the foot soldiers who have trudged miles of tough terrain to install the party in power, imposed inaction is the worst enemy. Political parties need mass agitations to remain fit. Like Mamata Banerjee has managed to beard the Communists in their adda.

The Communists, of course, have proved themselves to be past masters at the game. Even as they presided over the decline of West Bengal, they were able to hoodwink the people into believing that the Centre was the fountainhead of all misery. The Shiv Sena, alas, is not so lucky, for not only is the federal government ruled by a friendly party, but the Sena itself is a partner in the government.

Even that has not prevented him from going hammer and tongs at "the idiots" who are ruling the country, but when it comes to galvanising his party cadre, he has chosen the time-tested path of advocating Maharashtrian sentiment. Obviously there is no way Thackeray can be expected to abandon the line that has stood him in such good stead, but it is likely that in his haste to pull the chestnuts out of the fire, he did not see if they were edible in the first place.

How much dividend can be left on a pro-Maharashtrian card that was first encashed a couple of decades ago? Tarring nameplates may have been the rage when first tried out by the Dravida parties in Tamil Nadu in the sixties, but if those guys have not reverted to type, there must be a modicum of reason behind it.

A generation is a long time, any amount of water must have flowed into the Arabian Sea in that period. I could be excused for my ignorance, but the kind of resentment that was inbuilt into the native psyche against 'outside' domination seems to have played itself out. And for this, economic development has to be thanked or blamed, depending on whether you are Sharad Pawar or Bal Thackeray.

As ordinary Maharashtrians take the lead in software and other fields, as they contribute to the economic wellbeing of other societies, as their own state itself is proof of what havoc fiscal mismanagement can wreak even if by 'sons of the soil', there is little chance of them buying the argument that may have once swayed their parents.

Personally, I have this strong feeling that the Thackeray brand of politics is bound to come a cropper at the hustings. And one doesn't have to be a political pundit to arrive at this conclusion; one simply has to be resident of Maharashtra.

But the more interesting aspect is that the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Sena's partner in power and out of it, is making noises about coming to power on its own in the state, presumably on the Hindutva plank which is currently co-occupied by the Sena when it is not running after Maharashtrian votes.

If the BJP plans to come to power on its own in Maharashtra via the Hindutva route, what of its electoral ally?

The former has been making independent noises because it has realised the limitations of the Thackeray-brand of politics, and also the limitations of a personality-led political party. When his heirs -- chosen and unchosen -- squabble over Thackeray's political legacy, the BJP wants to position itself as the recipient of non-Congress, non-socialist votes.

If Thackeray realises that his legacy will be squandered, and perhaps reaped by a party he helped grow in the state, he has not shown any signs of it. History -- replete with similar incidents when friends have turned foe and successor -- it seems, has been forgotten by him.

Saisuresh Sivaswamy