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More attacks likely, say intelligence agencies

Josy Joseph in New Delhi

There would be more lethal attacks by terrorists in the Kashmir Valley in the coming days, intelligence agencies warn.

Approaching Independence Day and the curbs on security forces due to the Hizbul Mujahiddin cease-fire are being exploited by other militant groups such as Lashkar-e-Toiba to mount more attacks in the valley.

"These two factors make it the most vulnerable period," admits a senior army official.

Security forces are on the back foot due to the cease-fire declared by Hizbul, as an all out operation against terrorists is not possible under such conditions. "It could completely endanger the cease-fire. We have to be careful not to take on Hizbul men," says an intelligence official.

The security agencies are getting ready to execute the modalities of the cease-fire, but it would take days of negotiations before an understanding is reached.

"But in the meanwhile, other groups would step up their attacks. In the coming few days it could get worse," admit intelligence sources.

And the fear is compounded by the fact that though Hizbul has the largest number of militants in the Valley, it is groups such as Lashkar-e-Toiba which are more active.

According to available statistics, there are about 3,500 militants in the Valley, of which 1500 belong to Hizbul. Over 1200 of the Hizbul militants are locals, the rest are foreigners. But most of them have been dormant for sometime now.

Lashkar-e-Toiba, the most active and potent group in the Valley has over 800 militants, of which over 630 are foreigners. Only around 170 of them are Kashmiris.

The other active group is Harkat-ul-Ansar which has about 500 militants, and almost half of them are foreigners. There are several other smaller outfits.

Most of the present attacks are being carried out by Lashkar-e-Toiba, say military and intelligence sources, and there are clear instructions from across the border to them to carry out more potent strikes.

While destruction of the ceasefire remains the key aim, the militant groups also expect to force security forces into carrying out operations that could ultimately anger the local population.

Already there are complaints that during the attack on Pahalgam Amarnath Yatri camp, para-military forces carried out indiscriminate firing on the innocents around.

Though the Union government has vowed to continue with the cease-fire, there are enough indications that security forces would soon launch retaliatory strikes. However, political compulsions are forcing them to hold back.

"Unless Hizbul cadres are identified and secured in their locations, we will not be able to carry out any free operations," admitted an army official.

Meanwhile, approaching August 15 Independence Day celebrations are adding to the concerns of the security forces as it is the time when attacks peak.

Past records show that July-August is the period when infiltration is the highest. Last year in July, there was over 100 per cent increase in infiltration compared to June figures.

Though this July's figures are yet to be known, it is suspected that more foreign mercenaries have sneaked into the Valley in the last few weeks.

The pre-independence day strikes could only add to the headache of security forces, which find themselves trapped between the compulsions of a cease-fire and the inability to identify terrorists according to their organisation.

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