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Goa CM unlikely to win trust vote

Sandesh Prabhudesai in Panaji

It is clear that Chief Minister Luizinho Faleiro cannot win the confidence vote slated to be held at 1700 hours today. All his efforts to win over a group of legislators from the Opposition camp have born no fruit.

The Congress is now planning various strategies to create a constitutional crisis so that Dr Wilfred de Souza cannot form a government and Governor J F R Jacob is compelled to impose President’s rule in the state by dissolving the assembly.

The 68-day government led by Faleiro, which has a majority of one in the 40-member House, was reduced to a minority when two of his ministers resigned last week and joined Dr de Souza's group.

Dr Willy then staked a claim to form a government with the support of 21 MLAs including the two new rebels, six of his Goa Rajiv Congress legislators, eight Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party MLAs, four Bharatiya Janata Party deputies and one Independent.

As Deu Mandrekar, one of the rebels, belongs to the Congress while John Manuel Vaz, another rebel, is an Independent, Speaker Tomazinho Cardoz may disqualify the former today, based on a petition which points at his disassociation with the Congress by signing a letter supporting Dr de Souza and not attending the Congress Legislature Party meeting two days ago.

Dr de Souza argues that Mandrekar can be disqualified only if he defies the party whip on the floor of the House or abstains from voting without giving justifiable reason within 14 days, as per the provisions of the Anti-Defection Act.

The ailing 76-year-old Mandrekar has already conveyed to the speaker that he cannot appear before him for the hearing this morning and may not attend the session this evening. Even without his presence, Dr Willy claims the support of 20 MLAs against 18 legislators in the Congress camp, besides the speaker.

Faleiro claims that Dr de Souza cannot form the government as 20 would not comprise a simple majority after Mandrekar is disqualified. But the chief minister avoids replying to the fact that the strength of the House would be reduced to 39 once Mandrekar is disqualified.

Knowing this, Faleiro now plans either to submit the resignations of all 18 Congress MLAs or persuading the speaker, a Congressman, to resign after disqualifying Mandrekar, the former deputy speaker, just before the session begins.

But Faleiro's party colleagues are learnt to have not responded positively to his appeal for en masse resignations. Some more Congressmen may shift allegiance to the de Souza camp, and support his claim to form a government.

The only option which could create a constitutional crisis is the speaker's resignation as the deputy speaker's post, vacated by Mandrekar two months ago, is yet to be filled. It would mean that the House would have no one to chair this evening's session.

Though it is not known what the governor will do if the speaker resigns at the last minute, the Congress camp hopes that Raj Bhavan may recommend President’s rule in the state.

But the Opposition camp refutes this argument, stating that the governor could appoint the senior-most member (former Congress chief minister Pratapsing Rane) as the pro-tem speaker to supervise the proceedings. He could also dismiss the Faleiro government forthwith.

But inviting Dr de Souza to form the government remains doubtful as long as the four-member BJP group is undecided whether it will support another coalition government.

This would mean that no party is in a position to form a government, which will be a fit case to impose President's rule in the state. The BJP has decided to chalk out its strategy only after this evening's session.

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