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I-Day is not One Billion Baby day, scoff experts

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

Will India reach the One Billion mark on its 52 Independence Day? The answer depends on whom you choose to believe.

According to a United Nations department, on August 15, 1999, when Indians throughout the nation will be unfurling flags and celebrating, a baby born somewhere will the billionth baby. If so, India will be only the second country to have more than a billion souls on its soil, the other naturally being China, whose population is now around 1.2 billion.

However, Indians are more than slightly sceptical of the claim made by the UN. "I think some UN official decided that it will be a nice coincidence to tell the whole world that on the important day of our Independence anniversary, the population will also cross the one billion mark," remarked Dr K Srinivasan, president of the Population Foundation of India.

The motive, according to Srinivasan, is publicity. "By ensuring that the one billion mark day coincides with our Independence Day, the UN department and their Western associates can be sure of getting a lot of free publicity. It will certainly be a neat symbolism," he added.

Srinivasan is right, that the West has taken up the topic with a vengeance. Reports have been appearing in the media and August 15 is being awaited with just a little anticipation than the solar eclipse witnessed a few days ago! And there are the usual mandatory reports of how India's efforts to curb its population have been a failure and all that sort of stuff.

Yet, if the UN is wrong, when is the One Billion Baby Day, if it may be called that? Estimates vary.

The population is calculated on the basis of the census and the growth rate. The growth rate is the birth rate less the death rate. The last census, taken in 1991, stated India's population was around 850 million. And the official growth rate in 1991 was 2.12 per cent, but importantly, studies show that by 1996 it had fallen to 1.96 per cent (which matches that of some some Western countries).

However, there are two major problems in India. First, many demographers have doubts about the official census, suspecting that the Census Bureau, the government's official number keeper, fudges the figures to keep it low. Second, many births and deaths are never registered, especially in the remote villages, which affects the growth rate calculation.

The Census Registrar of India has denied the UN's contention that B-Day is upon us. The Census Bureau of India has declared that the B-Day is May 12, 2000, three-quarters of a year away.

But the Census Bureau is not exactly a trusted friend. Thus, if the UN has brought the B-Day forward, perhaps the Census Bureau has pushed it back a bit far.

The Population Foundation of India has given four dates, "all guesstimates," warns Srinivasan, on which India's one billionth baby will be born. And believe it or not, the first date is well past. It was December 17, 1998!

"But this estimate is based on taking the largest population base and the highest growth rate possible, both of which are rather extreme and most probably wrong. Hence we can safely disregard this date," says Srinivasan.

The other dates offered are December 3, 1999; January 12, 2000, and May 12, 2000.

The December estimate is the calculation of the Population Foundation, the January of some other private organisations, while the May date is from the Census Bureau.

"Ultimately, choosing the date can only be a guess, not an accurate calculation, since no one can actually count the numbers. But if you examine the dates closely, most of the private institutions have pegged the billion mark in December or January. Thus it is safe to assume that we will reach the billion along with the new millennium," declared Srinivasan.

While well-known sociologist K C Sivaramakrishna is also doubtful about the exact date being August 15, what bothers him is the hoopla and hype surrounding the day. "First, it is not something to be celebrated as the West is almost assuming that we are. But on the other hand, it is also not a tragedy because our efforts to curb our population growth have been quite successful though of course it could have been much better," he said.

Sivaramakrishna pointed out that either way the population could vary by a couple of million. "But how does it really matter? Let us concentrate on the task at hand," he said.

Famous demographer Ashish Bose is even more emphatic. "I am not too sure that the date for one billion is right now. Who has made that claim?" he asked.

When told it was the UN, he snorted. "Everyone has their own dates which they keep proclaiming. The fact is that except for the four 'Bimaru' (literally, sick) states -- Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh -- India's population growth rate has been falling. Surely it will have an impact on the population," he said.

Which means the Billionth Baby Day may go even further back. It also means the UN just made a booboo.

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