ELECTIONS '98
COMMENTARY
SPECIALS
INTERVIEWS
CAPITAL BUZZ
REDIFF POLL
DEAR REDIFF
THE STATES
YEH HAI INDIA!
ARCHIVES

A Silly Season

April is the cruellest month.

No one quite knows whether the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government will survive the coming session of Parliament or not. While J Jayalalitha keeps everyone guessing as to why she has suddenly decided to pull the rug from under Vajpayee's feet, no one is convinced that the moment she quits the uneasy coalition, after months of threatening and browbeating, the rest of the jigsaw will immediately fall into place and the Congress will form the next government.

In other words, Sonia Gandhi will take charge.

It was a lot of fun initially to watch a grim, inexperienced Sonia take on the might of the Congress heavyweights and cut them down to size. Rajiv Gandhi had done it in his time and India had applauded. Whether it was kicking Anjaiah in public or sidelining Sharad Pawar or creating a coterie of fresh faced cronies like Arun Nehru and Satish Sharma who pretended to know nothing about the corrupt, corrupt ways of Indian politics, Rajiv started off with what looked like a clean slate and India was ready to cast aside its cynicism and believe that he was indeed what he pretended to be. A reluctant politician and an even more reluctant prime minister.

Of course, it took but a few months for India to figure him out for what he actually was and by the time Westland and Bofors had caught up with Rajiv, it was time to find a new hero. Post-Rajiv India lionised Vishwanath Pratap Singh for a brief spell and then, when he resurrected the Mandal Commission and came up with his half-baked ideas of social justice and the empowerment of the weak, unleashing a whole new culture of incipient casteism, the nation (in its frustration) decided to chuck the very idea of searching for a charismatic leader. In came Chandra Shekhar, who was neither fish nor fowl, and gave a final burial to coalition politics.

With Rajiv getting killed midway through the next election, an embarrassed India somewhat reluctantly voted the Congress back to power. In the absence of anyone else, old P V Narasimha Rao moved into 7 Race Course Road looking like a temporary tenant. No one gave him even an outside chance of surviving his full term for the man simply did not look like, sound like, behave like a leader in the first place. He came into power simply because he seemed the most pliable, the most vulnerable. An interim arrangement.

Rao of course disproved his looks and not only managed to survive his full term but, surprise surprise, walked through every crisis (however formidable it looked) with the sangfroid of a modern day Moses. By the time his term ended, you could see the spring in his steps and his sons were all self-acknowledged millionaires. So were all those around him. Even Harshad Mehta, who seized the national headlines for almost half a year, could not dislodge him. Eventually it was the electorate that threw Rao out and brought back the era of uneasy coalitions. H D Deve Gowda, Inder Kumar Gujral and, now, Vajpayee leading fragile governments that worked reasonably well but never got any credit for whatever they did. They were always seen as interim and India, if we are to believe the Congress, was merely readying itself to return to serious, stable politics. In other words, a Congress regime.

Meanwhile, Sitaram Kesri got rid of Narasimha Rao. And Sonia, in turn, got rid of Kesri and put in place her own cabal of advisors. With Manmohan Singh as their figurehead. It was a brilliant strategy because if there was one person in the Congress who drew nationwide respect and admiration it was undoubtedly Singh, the architect of modern India's structural reforms. But that was possibly the last brilliant thing she did.

Everything else after that was a boo-boo. Supporting Laloo and forcing the Vajpayee government to reinstate Rabri Devi after sacking her in the wake of a series of bloody caste massacres in Bihar was the stupidest thing in the world to do. Biharis may love Laloo Prasad Yadav but the much of the rest of India detests him and sees him as a symbol of rampant corruption and casteism. A man who has driven his home state to absolute ruination. By supporting him, Sonia exposed herself for what she was. Just another unscrupulous politician. Ready to back Laloo for her own political compulsions.

Once Sonia backed Laloo, the die was cast. No one was shocked any more when she joined hands with an equally corrupt Jayalalitha to spite the BJP. It was but a natural consequence. People, in fact, expected it. She was only adding to her first mistake.

Now that the gloves are off and she has given up all her pretences of being different from the rest of the Congress, no one will be surprised if she makes more compromises. More dishonourable compromises. Given the fact that she has chosen to be in the company of India's two most disgraced politicians, all she needs on her side now is people like Dawood Ibrahim and Ottavio Quattrochhi. If the media and the investigative agencies are to be believed, she already has the latter. Who, like Laloo and Jayalalitha, is already in the crosshairs of the CBI. Instead of allowing the VHP to make foolish swipes about her Italian background and Christian origins, if Vajpayee now has the nerves to simply put out the Bofors documents that the Swiss courts have sent him, indicting Q, that could well signal the beginning of her end.

Not because the BJP will then go after her. A government in power is always weak, effete, reluctant to look vindictive. It is her satraps who will then step out of line and try to take charge. They will strike convenient deals among themselves, work out stratagems to sideline her. As it is, they are not exactly keen to go to the electorate again so soon. Most of them are not as sure of winning as Sonia is. What is worse, many of them suspect that, if fresh elections are announced, they will not even get tickets. Sonia, like Rajiv, is known for playing favourites and no one will be surprised if most of the current Congressmen in Parliament (particularly those belonging to factions seen as rivalling her) are sidelined during the next elections and tickets are only given to her cronies.

My question is simple. Is it not better for, say, Sharad Pawar (to take just one example) to keep the current status quo and ensure that the Vajpayee government remains at the Centre, so that he (in the meanwhile) consolidates his position and pitches for a stronger say in the affairs of Maharashtra? If Sonia becomes any stronger, she will simply throw all his people out and emasculate him in a manner such that he can never ever pose a political threat to her in future. So, Sharad (like many other Congress satraps) will try not to allow the current status quo to be disrupted. It suits him as indeed it suits many other Congress leaders in different parts of India, who are not exactly eager to give up their fiefdoms so that Sonia can become stronger.

It is only the Jyoti Basus and the Harkishen Singh Surjeets who will keep egging her on, for they have nothing to lose and everything to gain from the chaos that will follow the fall of the BJP. And, since the numbers game (as of now) does not show any way the Congress can come to power without a mid term poll, I do not understand why Jayalalitha prefers harakiri to sleeping with the enemy.

At least Mulayam Singh Yadav, whatever may be his other faults, has shown the wisdom to back off. To understand the simple fact that your enemy's enemy is not always your friend.

Pritish Nandy

Tell us what you think of this column