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Experts call for diplomatic offensive to defang sanctions

Having crossed the nuclear Rubicon, India should embark on a diplomatic offensive to minimise the possible international sanctions, defence analysts have said.

India should emphatically reaffirm its commitment to nuclear disarmament, the analysts said while welcoming India's offer to negotiate Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty.

India, which has conducted three nuclear tests including one using thermonuclear device, is in a better position to rework the disputed points in the CTBT. ''India is in a position of strength to talk on hotspots like subcritical, hydronuclear tests. It can now seek a ban on even those nuclear tests which do not have an explosive element,'' said Rahul Roy Chowdhry, research associate in the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses.

The domestic laws in the United States like the Glenn-Symington Amendment, 1994, would immediately apply on India which is a non-nuclear weapon state but carried out three underground nuclear tests yesterday in the Rajasthan desert. Moreover, Japan, which has been attacked by nuclear bombs twice, is also bound to get very upset at the Indian move.

The immediate agenda for the government is to undertake 'damage limitation exercises' by continuing to emphasise on India's total and consistent belief in total denuclearisation on a global scale.

The analysts said the government should counter the possible Pakistani diplomatic offensive to impose sanctions on India. In fact, Pakistan may not retaliate by conducting a nuclear test but may go on internationally as a 'hurt boy' and seek sanctions against India, they felt.

Several analysts also dispelled fears of an arms race. ''There is no question of India deciding on building a nuclear arsenal. It has kept the missiles and the nuclear warheads separate so far and as long as it keeps so, there is no arms race.''

On the possibility of India's chances for securing a permanent seat with veto powers in the United Nations Security Council after having conducted the three nuclear tests, the analysts gave a mixed response.

India, after undertaking a highly sophisticated exercise of exploding a fission-fusion-fission device, is now a nuclear weapons state, though unofficially recognised. ''This has definitely enhanced its status to claim a permanent seat,'' defence expert R R Subramaniam said.

However, other analysts were of the view that Japan and Germany still remained the frontrunners for the permanent seat. ''India's bold step has only reaffirmed the fact that it is a nuclear capable state,'' said Chowdhry.

The tests have shown that India can develop hydrogen bombs and this is not only a quantitative shift but also a qualitative one in the nuclear debate. ''This has heightened nuclear tensions in South Asian region. For the first time, we have a credible nuclear deterrent against China,'' he added.

Militarily, with the successful tests, India can make a tactical field-level weapon, produce warheads for ballistic missiles like Agni and Prithvi and possibly the cruise missile Sagarika. It would also help in miniaturisation of nuclear weapons, they added.

UNI

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