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Constituency Profile/Tripura

Fear over Tripura as poll day nears

Fear of extremist violence, which had marked the last two assembly elections (1988 and 1993), has gripped Tripura again as the state prepares to go to the polls on Monday, February 16. The election to the 60-member state assembly will be held along with the poll for the two Lok Sabha seats.

Following a boycott call by tribal guerrillas, the authorities have tightened security measures, including promulgating night curfew, along the Indo-Bangla border to curb the movement of militants. The district magistrates have imposed prohibitory orders under Section 144 of the Criminal Procedure Code even as political parties are busy wooing voters.

The Union government has decided to send additional central paramilitary forces to Tripura to tackle insurgency and help the administration conduct the election.

Tripura Home Minister Samar Chowdhury said today that the state government had requested additional forces to ensure that no untoward incidents occurred. He said the personnel would arrive in a day or two.

Meanwhile, the political parties are gearing up for the general and assembly elections. No national-level leader of the faction-ridden Congress, the major Opposition party in the state, has visited Tripura to campaign on the party's behalf. In contrast, Communist Party of India-Marxist Politburo member and West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu, and a host of West Bengal Left leaders and ministers have addressed scores of rallies in Tripura.

BJP president Lal Kishinchand Advani and senior party leaders Bishnu Kanta Shastri and Bansilal Soni also joined state party leaders in the electioneering, which is due to end at 1600 hours on Saturday.

As has been the case in the past few elections, the main contest will be between the ruling Left parties and the Opposition alliance comprising the Congress, the Tripura Upajati Juba Samiti and the Tripura National Volunteers alliance. However, the BJP has been gaining political ground and is likely to eat into a sizeable portion of the votes of both the major fronts, particularly the Congress.

Political observers say the nine to 10 per cent floating voters and tribal electorate will be the decisive factor in the assembly election. Of the 20 seats reserved for tribals and seven for the scheduled castes the ruling Left Front has won most of them in previous elections.

According to an assembly segment-wise analysis of the 1996 Lok Sabha poll, the Congress lost as many as seven assembly seats which the party had won in 1993. On the other hand, the Left Front lost two segments that it won in 1993.

Congress partner, the Tripura Upajati Juba Samiti, which contested the last Lok Sabha election independently in protest against the former's unilateral selection of candidates, lost the Bagma constituency, which the party won in the last assembly election.

The CPI-M-led Left Front, which secured 49.57 per cent votes in the 1993 assembly election, winning 49 seats: the CPI-M, 44; RSP, 2; and the Janata Dal, Forward Bloc and Tripura Hills People's Party, 1 each).

On the other hand, the Congress-TUJS alliance, which secured 11 seats, including one for the TUJS, bagged 39.33 per cent of the valid votes. In the 1996 Lok Sabha election, the Left Front secured 52.5 per cent votes while the Congress got 34 per cent. The TUJS secured 4.5 per cent votes.

The Congress is fielding candidates in 45 seats, leaving 10 to the TUJS and five to former underground organisation--turned--tribal-based party, the Tripura National Volunteers. The ruling Left Front is not sharing seats with two of its allies -- the Janata Dal and the Tripura Hills People's Party.

The three major parties -- the Left Front, Congress and the BJP -- have all nominated candidates for both the Lok Sabha seats. The Congress has changed both its nominees, while the CPI-M only changed its candidate in the West Tripura Lok Sabha seat, held by Badal Chowdhury, and nominated Home Minister Samar Chowdhury in lieu. The BJP has not changed its candidates.

This election has seen the absence of Marxist stalwart and the father figure of the Communist movement in Tripura, Nripen Chakraborty, for the first time in its electoral history. Chakraborty, a former chief minister who was elected to the assembly seven times since 1957, was expelled from the CPI-M in April 1995.

Both the ruling Left Front and the Opposition alliance are fielding young faces for the election. Besides Nripenbabu, other Marxist stalwarts who will be mere spectators in the polls include Chief Minister Dasaratha Deb, tribal leader Bidya Debbarma, assembly Deputy Speaker Sunil Chowdhury and Purno Mohan Tripura, Hasmai Reang and Rasiram Debbarma, all members of the present assembly.

Chief Minister Deb, who was elected to the Lok Sabha three times since 1952 and elected to the Tripura assembly four times, is not contesting on grounds of failing health. .

The CPI-M's top tribal leader, Bidya Debbarma, elected to the assembly six times with a record number of votes, is also not contesting on health grounds. The deputy speaker and some other veteran Marxists also have their reasons for staying away.

Three former Congress chief ministers, as many former state Congress chiefs, and present state Congress president are all contesting the election. The Congress dropped 10 sitting MLAs and inducted 17 new faces for the assembly election.

UNI

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