NEWS
VIEWS
INTERVIEWS
CAMPAIGN TRAIL
ISSUES '98
MANIFESTOS
OVERHEARD
POLLING BOOTH
INDIA SPEAKS!
YEH HAI INDIA
CHAT

Muslim tactical voting can mar fortunes

With national parties jostling with each other in offering a better deal to the Muslims, the 120 million-strong minority group has once again become a much-wooed political entity at the hustings.

Touted as the single-most decisive factor in Indian politics, the phenomenon of a Muslim vote bank has become particularly relevant in states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal where 55 per cent of the community is concentrated.

One in every nine voters is a Muslim, according to the 1991 census, and their voting preferences can make or mar the fortunes of contestants in about 120 constituencies.

In as many as 82 constituencies, spread over 13 states and the Union territory of Lakshadweep, Muslims account for more than 20 per cent of the voters. They constitute more than 15 per cent of the voters in 118 constituencies.

Of these 82 constituencies, Uttar Pradesh accounts for 33, followed by West Bengal with 18, Bihar nine, Kerala eight, Jammu and Kashmir three, Karnataka and Maharashtra two each and Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep one each.

More important is the fact that Muslims have always plumped for tactical voting to inflict drubbings on candidates and parties which they perceive to be their opponents and non-secular.

It is this phenomenon of tactical voting that has made all the major parties bend backwards while offering an olive branch to the Muslim electorate.

Thus, the Congress has now offered apologies to the minorities for its failure to prevent the Babri Masjid demolition. Whatever had happened on December 6, 1992, was a tragedy of history, says Congress general secretary Madhavrao Scindia.

Further, in an apparent attempt at dusting its secularist prop, the Congress has denied ticket to former prime minister P V Narasimha Rao and promised to implement the court decision in the Ayodhya dispute case. It has also promised to initiate steps for the uplift of the minorities.

Offering the promise of a riot-free country to the Muslims is the Bharatiya Janata Party which has decided to keep under wraps the confrontationist facets of its Hindutva plank. Thus, while reiterating its resolve to construct a Ram temple at Ayodhya, the party says it will be accomplished within legal parameters and with a consensual approach.

Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray, an ally of the BJP, has pitched in with the suggestion of constructing a national monument at the disputed site.

The 13-party United Front, while projecting itself as the countrywide rainbow coalition, has assured the Muslims that the combine will be a bulwark against the growth of communalism.

Like the Congress, the Janata Dal has promised to establish a separate ministry of minorities under a Cabinet minister. The ministry would deal with all issues pertaining to the minorities, including the functioning of waqf boards and Haj pilgrimage. Besides, centrally-funded Urdu primary schools would be set up in areas where the Muslim population exceeds 25 per cent.

Traditionally considered a Congress vote bank, the Muslims began drifting away from the party after the Emergency. But the decisive break came after the Babri demolition.

Of the 28 parliamentary constituencies in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshdweep, where the minorities formed 15 per cent and above of the electorate, the Congress could win a mere five seats.

In West Bengal, the Left Front secured about 48 per cent votes in these constituencies while the Congress managed only 40 per cent. However, it was a neck-and-neck fight in medium concentration constituencies, where the Congress polled 44.2 per cent votes as against the Left Front's 44.4 per cent.

In Tamil Nadu, the Congress was routed while, in Kerala, the Left Front emerged as an alternative to the Congress. The party polled 32 per cent votes, but suffered a negative swing of five per cent, together with its ally, the Muslim League.

But it was in 50 constituencies of Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka and Maharashtra that the tactical voting phenomenon was starkly apparent to ensure the BJP's defeat. In the process, they even voted for the Congress, where the party was strongly poised against the BJP. The Congress won eight out of these 50 constituencies while it was runner-up in the others.

In Bihar, the minorities voted for the Janata Dal and the Congress had to face a hefty negative swing of more than 10 per cent votes. The BJP, enjoying a positive swing, could poll only 30 per cent while the Janata Dal garnered 36 per cent. The Congress was a distant third with 16 per cent votes.

The tactical voting phenomenon was underlined in the Katihar constituency in Bihar, where Janata Dal candidate and former Union home minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed was thought to be on a weak wicket against the BJP candidate. Thus, the minorities voted heavily in favour of Congress candidate Tariq Anwar, ensuring his victory with a comfortable majority.

In the last decade, the Congress suffered a negative swing of 6.20 per cent votes in high Muslim concentration Lok Sabha constituencies in the east zone comprising Bihar, Orissa and West Bengal.

In such constituencies of northern India, the BJP was the front runner in the 1996 polls, garnering 36.4 votes. In the 1991 poll, the Janata Dal and the Congress had emerged second and third respectively with 21 and 19 per cent votes. But a significant development of the previous election was the emergence of the Bahujan Samaj Party which accounted for 17 per cent votes while the Samajwadi Party had a share of 19.5 per cent votes.

In the last decade, the Congress suffered an erosion of over 11 per cent votes in the high Muslim concentration parliamentary constituencies in northern India while the BJP gained a staggering over 29 per cent votes.

In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP was a front runner in these constituencies -- it polled 36.1 per cent votes in 1996, registering a two per cent decrease in its support base.

In 1991, the JD was the runner-up with 23 per cent votes while the Samajwadi Party secured 23 per cent. The Congress could muster only 18 per cent votes.

In Uttar Pradesh, there were many alternatives to the Congress in 1996. As such, the Congress was the sole loser with every other party gaining from it.

The Congress suffered a negative swing of more than nine per cent. The Janata Dal's 18 per cent support base in such areas was shifted to its ally, the Samajwadi Party, which enjoyed a positive swing of more than 21 per cent votes. Wherever the SP was not in a position to give a tough fight to the BJP, the BSP became the main gainer.

Although the Congress was drastically downsized in Uttar Pradesh, a classical example of the tactical voting was witnessed in the Rampur constituency where the Congress candidate won with the massive support of Muslim voters. This was because neither the BSP nor the SP candidate was perceived by the minorities to be strong enough to give a strong challenge to the BJP candidate.

UNI

Tell us what you think of this report