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'A short correction soon'

September 13, 2006 14:02 IST

Perturbed by a choppy market as it was on Tuesday, people thronged the chat room during our weekly market chat with expert Pranav Sanghavi. As usual, Sanghavi was precise and sharp with his answers. Here is the transcript:

PRANAV SANGHAVI says, Hello everyone. I am here and let's begin the chat.

Srinathan asked, Dear Pranav What do you think about the reason behind high volatility in Indian Share Market when compared to US Market? Do you expect any more corrections ahead?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, As I had mentioned in my previous chat a short correction was expected. We did witness a savage single day correction da y before. There could be another correction at around 12,000 levels. If it crosses with out correction, the markets could break it's previous highs.

kaushik1 asked, Hi Pranav. I hold 20 shares of Kernex Microsystems @ 217. What should I do?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would swith to a quality frontline stock which got hit in the single day correction like a TCS or Infosys.

kaushik1 asked, What are the future prospects of NOCIL?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would hold on. NOCIL is a prime acquisition target.

kaushik1 asked, I have 50 shares of Vardhman Polyplex @ 94. What are its prospects?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, THe textile sector has not performed in tandem with the market over the last few years. Except for the Mill stocks which had land for development most of the textile stocks have underperformed. You could look at Raymond, Arvind from the textile stocks.

kaushik1 asked, Do u thnk JK Cement is a good prospect for a horizon of 12 months?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Yes, all cement stocks will do well even from current levels.

kaushik1 asked, Can you suggest some good midcap scripts for short term and long term returns?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could look at Mid-day, Syndicate Bank, NTPC, IDFC etc. I would recommend you study the market and see which quality stocks have been hammered in the correction in May/June. And pick those which have not come back to their previous levels.

SACHI asked, Sir Tell me the prospect of Godrej Consumer for a period of 6 months.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I am still bullish on Godrej Consumer Products. FMCG stocks should perform well over the next few years as the overall retail market looks to grow handsomely. You could look at Godrej Ind. too, which has a substantial stake in GCPL.

PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would hold all infrastructure stocks.

ashish asked, do u think that tvs is going to be a good pick for a horizon of 3 months?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I presume you mean TVS Motor? Yes. Their monthly unit sales figures were promising.

PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, The stocks will do well as there is a tremendous surge in the real estate development and the demand is also increasing simultaneously. Also, very soon the Foreign players will also be permitted without any hurdles which will boost the demand.

arup asked, Do u prefer Trading rather than Investing ? If not then what would be the time frame for a new comer Invester .
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, No I would prefer investing over trading any day. Time frame would be the investors prerogative but anything beyond 6 months is good. As a thumb rule, long term investors always make money whereas short term traders always lose money.

kin asked, I have bought itc @168,ntpc @112,ashok leyland@37.5,cipla@216,ivrcl@226 so shud I book the profits now by selling them off or shud I wait….coz I m skeptcial about the market after recent corrections.wats ur suggestion sir.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, All are good wuality stocks, I would hold on for a longer term. If you are a short term player you could sell when you feel there is a correction in the offing, in the hope to acquire them later at a lower price.

ash asked, can we buy infosys at this level

anand asked, has this chat started?

rakesh asked, hello, I am very new in this area, i want to LEARN something about stocks which e- site will help in this and I want to invest about 0.5 to 1 lacs in shares. To start now how i can proceed and which shares are the best for 1st investments guide me thanks
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, More than an e-site, I would recommend you undertake courses offered by both the leading exchanges' training institutes.

raj asked, what is your profession
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I am a Stock Broker.

paddy asked, Is it wise to open a account on ICICI Direct? Give me more info on Mutual Funds
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, In the online trading segment, I think ICICI Direct has about 60% market share. So you would be safe with them. Regarding MF's you could probably give me a more specific query.

kin asked, I bought sundaram select midcap openended fund for a nav of 88, I invested 10000 in it,but after the big correction it went down to 68 and after that it is still trying to come to normal and it has reached to 79-80 now…so shud I sell them off now and invest tht amount in some equities and make up for the loss or shud i wait it to get to 88.wats ur suggestion sir?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Most of the mid-caps have not come back to the pre-correction levels as yet. You will have to wait for a while. The quality mid-caps will surely return to their previous levels.

mohan asked, hi, I have 300 NTPC shares can i keep them or sell them it shows very slow movement. I want some fast and safe movement shares what are the options
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, NTPC is not in the tech sector where a 40% YOY growth is a common factor. But NTPC is a very strong company fundamentally with a strong balance sheet. It is in the Power sector and power is a short supply commodity throughout India. Also, power normally is a very capital intensive industry and return on capital is always slower than other sectors but very steady.

Sholapurkar asked, I have 100 petrnetLNG allotted.Should I hold or dispose off in crrent market?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could hold.

Yamraaj asked, On one side we are asked to invest with a Long term perspective, on the other we are advised to book profits. What is actually needed to be done? Please advise.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Booking profits are for active players of the market who are watching closely. If you do not have the time, I would recommend leave the money to be invested with professionals. If you are a longer term investor you should not be bothered by short term corrections. But as I've always said stick with frontline quality stocks.

jai asked, Hi Pranav, Good morning. Do you think the stock market will reach 13000 this year end i.e, Dec.2006
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Hi Jai. Good morning to you too, especially since the markets are up by 210 points. I don't know about Dec 2006 but in the next year it should breach that target.

Subu asked, Hi Pranav, Is it recommend reliance & infosys buy current levels?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Yes you could at every dip.

Murali asked, Where will the market go to?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would be bullish over the next 3 to 4 years atleast, provided there is no drastic change in the central government's policies or some drastic calamity like a Tsunami/earthquake etc. But if the companies maintain their profitability as they have over the last few years, I don't foresee a problem with the markets steadily moving upwards.

Tushar From Tanzania asked, Hi Pranav, I have Rs.2 lakhs to invest for a period of 2 years.At what levels you advise to enter on Orchid Chemicals,Tata Tea,Sterlite industries for above amount
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Hi Tushar. I would rather invest in frontline index stocks rather than Orchid or Sterlite. Sterlite being a commodity stock, you would need to follow the global metal indices and the commodity markets.

sensexman asked, How do you rate IPO of Gwalior Chemicals?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I have not studied the prospectus, so I would not be in a position to comment on the same. Sorry.

tintin asked, what is yourtake on semiconductor industry such as SPEL semiconductor & Moschip short term as well as long term.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Semiconductor manufacturing is a highly niche business and this sector should grow in the future as our cost of manufacture of the chips are much lower than global levels. Both these stocks should do well in the future.

ajay asked, Is there any specific period where you can buy the various scripts and sell at a profit
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, No there is no specific period.

Murali asked, Welcome Pranav
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Thank you Murali, welcome to the chat too.

vivek asked, Hiii... M new to this area...wanted to know abut the mutual funds n investments..can u guide me on that or nay link that would be helpful....plz reply
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, For investment in Mutual Funds, I would need to know a few more details to advise. If you could email the same to me on, I would be more than happy to revert back.

Raja asked, Dear Pranav, I have Gayathri Sugars as per Money control advise, at an average price of 20Rs/- and currently it is at around 10-11

range. Can I expect the turnaround or sell them at a loss?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I am sorry I don't follow the stock I would not be able to advise. What does Money control have to say? But I would stick with frontline sugar stocks like Balrampur or Bajaj Hind.

baig asked, can the Titan industries be bought for short term gains
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, No, I would invest with a long term perspective as the Gold prices would affect the stock performance. But they do have retail expansion plans which will bear fruit in the future.

sensexman asked, What next once sensex crosses 12000 mark?Bullish or bearish market..?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, There could be further profit booking at those levels. If it crosses that mark convincingly, it could cross the previous high albiet slowly.

paddy asked, what are all the shares you feel it is better to buy/look and the investment/trading strategy for the beginners?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, When there is a correction you could look at the index stocks like RIL, TCS, ITC etc.

ram asked, hi, do you think its worth buying hotel leela venture at cmp?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, There is a story in the scrip. If it comes through then the stock could perform.

tk asked, wat is your view on Gateway distriparks
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think it is a hold.

varun asked, hello sir, how are you?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Hi Varun, I am fine thank you. How are you?

harsh asked, Sir let me ask you bit typical but expect simpler answer. What is the right method to track stocks? TV, Business papers, Web sites, Charts, Company details or please suggest your veiws....And for best earning what you suggest, i mean what time one shuould hold stocks?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, The best way is to track all the above. Any information is good information. A longer term player will always make money.

devinder asked, your comment on ongc
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Fundamentally, extremely strong but the price is underperformed and will also depend on the movement of crude oil prices.

PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, That is a good question. More often than not, the Ex-bonus price is slightly lower than that of the cum bonus price, bonus shares ration being adjusted. But in this case, it would be the investors call as L&T will do well in the long term even after the bonus.

Sholapurkar asked, I have 500 shares of RIL industries.should I dispose part in current market and book profit.These shares I have holded more than 10 years.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, If you need cash for other investments you could sell but I would cover them in Futures. The cost of carrying the Futures would be around 8% per annum. As RIL looks to be a strong performer in the future also.

sata asked, what are future prospects about reliance communications?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, As I have mentioned in my previous chats, it looks good to me. It will get merged with Reliance Infocomm and Reliance INfocomm is planning an IPO soon.

emkay91 asked, whats cooking in titan, sterlite and srf - has ketan bhai re entered the markets
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, By Ketanbhai I am presuming you mean Mr. Ketan Parekh. I would not know if he has. Titan is moving on the story of it's retail expansion plans. Sterlite will move in tandem with global commodity markets and indices.

harsh asked, Sir, I have purchased IDBI today at 67.90 rs. So after yesterdays announcement now what you see in future for this stock? plz.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You are picking up the stock on a day when it is 6 to 7% highs. I would always prefer to pick up on dips like on this Monday. But in the longer term it should do well.

vandana asked, Hello Mr.pranav, how much importance u give to technical analysis?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Hello Vandana. I am not a technical analyst, so personally I don't. But some day traders swear by the analysis provided by technical chartists.

ram asked, hi

Sheel asked, Good afternoon Pranav, what do u suggest about GSPL, ADLABS, Gitanjali. Whether to hold or sell. Thanks n regds
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Good afternoon Sheel. I am bullish on ADLABS, Guj State Petro. Gitanjali needs to perform over the next few quarters as it is relatively a new company before I would recommend.

manish asked, is buying infosys @ 1800 good option??
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, It would depend on your time frame. If for a month maybe not. If for a year, you surely could.

vineet asked, Pranav , What is your Opinion about the RNRL
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I need to see its performance over atleast 3 to 4 quarters before I recommend it.

naveed asked, hello i hve bought 300 shares of R COM at 320 what target should i keep for the next 3 months or at what levels should i exit
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would exit post the IPO where it should get good valuation.

jai asked, With lower crude prices, what is scope for mid cap stocks in the near future
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Crude Oil price movements normally directly affects the Oil stocks and the Refining stocks. I don't see the corelation between crude prices and mid-cap stocks.

motu asked, what is the fuuture for vsnl, Monsonto and wyeth purchsaed at 400, 1800 and 600 levels
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, All should do well in the future.

Narasimha asked, hi, i want the basics of the stocks,IPO,MF. which website or any book provides the information.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could take on courses offered by both the leading exchanges from their Training Institutes.

sk asked, hi pranav, what do you think of gv films and future prospects
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Hi SK. I would look at other quality stocks.

NIRMAL asked, I am holding 300 shares of sakthi sugar. Pls give your suggestion
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could hold on.

Bala asked, I have 250 andhra cements 150 kcp and 450 of pasupathi.should I hold for some more time or sell it me plse
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could hold on to Andhra Cements. Pasupathi could be swithced.

Tushar From Tanzania asked, Hi Pranav.What Prices do you advise to enter stocks like Hindalco,Morepen Laboratories, Tourisn Finance corportaion.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could enter Hindalco through the Partly paid shares listed. They are quoting at a discount to the market.

Manoj1 asked, I have reliance petroleom at 70, should I keep it ?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could swithc to a growth stock.

Raja asked, What is your advice on TFCI and Vishal Exports?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I don't follow those stocks sorry.

kurien asked, How are the chances of small PSU banks such as UCO and vijaya
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think if they solve their NPA problems they will perform well as the whole banking industry will witness a growth phase over the next few years.

nimbupani asked, why was there a swing in EIH from 800+ to 120+
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, It has been converted to a Rs. 2 paid up stock from a Rs. 10 paid up stock.

polango asked, Could you please give us the prospects of Mount Everest Mineral Water.The stock has started moving up from 30 levels to the current level of Rs 54.Is any takeover story in the offing
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I have not heard of any. I would be careful.

Deb asked, Dear Sir, I want about Tale data service(TELDAT). Bcos I bye 500pcs at Rs. 47.00, but now it Rs. 11.00 only, Can I hold it??How long I'll. Plz advice me. regards Debashis
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Someone had posed a similar query a couple of weeks back when the stock was hovering around Rs. 42. I had recommended to switch. If you can afford to book a loss, book it and swithc to a frontline tech stock like Wipro.

kapiljoshi asked,  I want toinvest 1 lakh rupee for two/three month wt is the right option
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Buy Index stocks on a correction day like the one we witnessed this Monday.

PRANAV SANGHAVI says, Well as always it was great interacting with you guys. Hope to see you'll next week. Bye for now.

Chat with Pranav every week!