Reliance is slated to overtake state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation as the country's top gas producer in six years.
Reliance will produce 40 million standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd) of natural gas in 2010-11, against 34.95 mmscmd by ONGC.
The estimates have been arrived at by a group set up by the petroleum ministry to assess the availability of natural gas from various sources.
According to the long-term production profile, ONGC's gas production is expected to decline from 65.38 mmscmd in 2004-05 to 34.95 mmscmd in 2010-11.
In the same time, production by private and joint venture companies will increase from 19.82 mmscmd in 2004-05 to 59.43 mmscmd in 2010-11. Of this, Reliance will have the lion's share, 40 mmscmd.
ONGC Chairman Subir Raha, who is heading the group in the petroleum ministry, agreed that ONGC's gas production could decline because most of its fields were depleting.
However, he said the projections would keep changing as and when the corporation made fresh discoveries in the blocks awarded to it under four rounds of licences for exploration.
But the same logic applies to the private companies. Reliance yesterday announced another discovery of around 4-5 trillion cubic feet of gas off Orissa.
After the big gas find in the deep waters of the Krishna-Godavari basin, this is the second find by Reliance from blocks awarded to it in the first round of exploration contracts.
Against this, ONGC is yet to announce any major discovery from the blocks it has bagged. At a recent press conference, Raha said the corporation had so far drilled only three wells in the deep water exploration blocks. Two of the wells are dry and one is showing some promise.
Of the oil blocks contracted out for exploration, ONGC has 52, Reliance 26 and others 13.
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