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Rediff.com  » Business » Rainfall 24% below average: CMIE

Rainfall 24% below average: CMIE

By Moneycontrol.com
June 26, 2006 15:26 IST
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Director at CMIE, Mahesh Vyas, says that rainfall in the past three weeks has been 24% below the long period average, which is quite distressing.

However, he further says that it is too early to say whether the monsoon will have a bad impact on agriculture & economy.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Mahesh Vyas:

How have you read the kind of monsoon that we have had so far?

The progress of monsoon for the first three weeks of the current season has been quite bad. So we have seen rainfall 24% below the long period average, which is quite distressing. So although the monsoon came up earlier than scheduled, it looked like it will rain well this year. But the first three weeks numbers from the Met Department shows that the rainfall has been 24% below the long period average.

Although this is not as bad because in the last year during the same period, rainfall was 52% below the long period average and yet the year ended with a reasonably good monsoon and good crop. So it is too early to say whether the rainfall is good or bad.

At this point last year we were debating on whether we will have a bad monsoon, but then finally it turned out not so bad. How much can we infer from the June data?

It is too early to say. Usually in the past, the first month was very critical. But this is not necessary, keeping in mind the past two years. So there are changing patterns. One requires to see this data with more recurrence to draw a meaningful inference.

There is one more thing that is confusing on the rainfall data front. There is a big shift in the measurement of the normal precipitation itself. So in the first three weeks of last year, the normal precipitation was more than 100mm and this year that has fallen sharply. So in terms of actual precipitation, the rain this year is more than last year. So these numbers are a little confusing and they tend to get revised too often also.

When does the time curve give you a more conclusive picture on what exactly is happening and whether or not this

is going to be deficient or sufficient or excess?

It is more important to look at the results of the monsoon rather than the monsoon itself because the monsoon data seems to be a little more complicated and less reliable. So I would wait for data on the cropping pattern.

One will get this information regularly on a weekly basis after a couple of weeks from now and one will also notice the reservoir levels. So if one studies the reservoir levels, which looks good today and the cropping pattern, then one will get a better idea of the effect of the monsoon rather than the monsoon itself.

You said you are not particularly happy with what you have read so far. Which parts are you a bit worried about so far, depending on how the distribution has been?

The distribution is difficult to comment on right now because the monsoon has not spread all over the country in a meaningful way as yet. So it is still the Peninsula and little more than that where the rainfall has been noticed. In these regions, one sees a 24% shortfall.

Kerala and Karnataka have seen severe shortages like 40% etc and rainfall is important for them not only for agriculture but also for Hydroelectricity generation.

So I hope that the rains will catch up in the following weeks and will make up for the loss in the initial weeks. For the Northern regions, one needs to wait a little longer but by mid July or so we will know how good the rainfall has been.

Is three weeks too early to call it either ways?

Yes, I think that three weeks is too early to call it either way and if the rains were good, we would say that the crop would be good too. But unfortunately the rains have not been very good and we will wait for the rains to improve and that can improve the situation for us. It is too early to say that this is going to have a bad impact upon the agricultural situation or on the economy and it is too early to write it off either. So I think that we should wait.

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